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Moncler (BIT:MONC) has seen a series of negative returns recently, with the share price around €49.62 and declines over the past week, month, past 3 months, year to date, and past year.
See our latest analysis for Moncler.
Moncler’s recent share price weakness, including a 30 day share price return of 11.27% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 17.25%, points to fading momentum compared with its longer term 5 year total shareholder return of 15.42%.
If Moncler’s pullback has you reassessing your options, this could be a good moment to look at other luxury and consumer names through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
With the share price under pressure, annual revenue of €3.1b and net income of €612.3m, plus a recent analyst price target above today’s level, are you looking at an undervalued luxury icon or a stock already pricing in future growth?
With Moncler’s most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of about €58.81 versus a last close of €49.62, the story assumes the market is underpricing its earnings power over time.
The Group’s shift toward seasonless product assortments (for example, ramping up summer and transitional wear via Moncler Collection and Grenoble) reduces reliance on winter outerwear and targets growing year-round demand, expanding the addressable market and supporting a more balanced, resilient revenue base.
Curious what has to happen for that higher value to make sense? The narrative leans on steadier revenue growth, firm margins, and a premium earnings multiple. The exact mix of assumptions might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of €58.81 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, softer like for like D2C sales and recent operating margin pressure could continue to weigh on sentiment if demand or profitability do not stabilise.
Find out about the key risks to this Moncler narrative.
The fair value story around €58.81 leans on earnings and multiples, but our DCF model points in the opposite direction, with a future cash flow value of about €28.41 per share. That would imply Moncler is trading above its cash flow estimate, so which anchor makes more sense to you?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
MONC Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Moncler for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 874 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
If you see the story differently or prefer to work through the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Moncler research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
If Moncler is only one piece of your watchlist, this is a good moment to widen the net and pressure test your ideas against fresh opportunities.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MONC.MI.
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