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Andean Silver (ASX:ASL) is in focus after intensive drilling at its Cerro Bayo project delivered high grade silver and gold hits, new vein discoveries near existing plant infrastructure, and secured over A$60 million in fresh funding.
That cash is earmarked for further drilling, permitting work, possible land right acquisitions, and early economic studies, with a revised Mineral Resource Estimate targeted for the first half of 2026.
See our latest analysis for Andean Silver.
The Cerro Bayo drilling update lands after a sharp 74.0% 90 day share price return and a very large 3 year total shareholder return, which suggests momentum has been building as investors reassess both growth prospects and project risks. Overall, the stock has delivered strong short term share price gains alongside outsized longer term total shareholder returns.
If drilling success at Cerro Bayo has your attention, it can be worth broadening your search to other resource names with insider alignment and growth potential through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
After a 74.0% 90-day share price run and a very large 3-year total shareholder return, with the stock trading at A$2.61 against an A$4.95 analyst target, is there still a buying opportunity here or is the market already pricing in future growth?
The most followed narrative on Andean Silver places fair value at A$25 per share, far above the last close at A$2.61, which sets up a very wide valuation gap.
Valuation Scenarios (AISC assumed $20/oz, industry average)
Curious how that A$25 fair value stacks up against those cash flow scenarios? The narrative leans on aggressive volume ramp up and rich profit assumptions. Want the full playbook behind that gap?
Story Continues
According to RockeTeller, this narrative is built around Cerro Bayo shifting from an early stage explorer with minimal current revenue to a fully restarted producer with sizeable annual silver equivalent output and meaningful free cash flow. The author assumes a restart path with production levels in the millions of ounces per year, pairs that with higher silver price scenarios, and then applies double digit cash flow multiples to arrive at equity values that sit far above the present A$2.61 share price.
Those building blocks, together with a discount rate of 7.04%, feed into the fair value estimate of A$25 per share, which implies a very large discount of 89.6%. That gap reflects a view that the market price today does not fully reflect the restart potential, the permitted mill, and the projected scale of the resource in the longer term.
Result: Fair Value of A$25 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on Cerro Bayo actually restarting, and on silver prices and project costs landing close to the optimistic assumptions that underpin those scenarios.
Find out about the key risks to this Andean Silver narrative.
If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can pull up the same data and build a custom view in minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Andean Silver research is our analysis highlighting 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If Andean Silver is on your radar, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas that match how you like to invest.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASL.AX.
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