The current macroeconomy has been described by some as a “no hire–no fire” economy. Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the market value of goods and services produced, has been strong, with third-quarter estimates now at 4.4%. In the most recent quarter, growth was driven primarily by a combination of the resilient consumer, and a reversal of the import surge observed during the first quarter of the year.

Despite the strong growth, comparable gains have not followed in the labor market. Payroll growth has slowed significantly from last year, and hiring activity has declined. Layoffs, however, have not surged. In fact, layoffs remain at historically low levels and well below a recession threshold of roughly 350,000 initial claims per week. Employers, it seems, are holding onto workers, but are increasingly reluctant to add new ones.

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Uric Dufrene is the Sanders Chair in Business at Indiana University Southeast.