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Wondering whether Archer-Daniels-Midland shares still offer value after a strong run, or if most of the upside is already priced in.
The stock trades at US$67.31, with a small 0.3% decline over the last week, a 17.1% gain over 30 days, 14.0% year to date, 36.5% over 1 year, 9.9% decline over 3 years, and 45.2% gain over 5 years. This gives you a mixed but interesting performance profile to weigh up.
Recent moves in Archer-Daniels-Midland’s share price have put more attention on how the company is positioned in the global food and agriculture supply chain and what that might mean for future pricing of the stock. This context is important when you are trying to decide whether the current share price fairly reflects the company’s role and risks.
Simply Wall St currently gives Archer-Daniels-Midland a valuation score of 1 out of 6, as it screens as undervalued in only one of six checks. Next we will walk through the usual valuation approaches before finishing with a way of thinking about value that goes beyond the headline metrics.
Archer-Daniels-Midland scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. It is essentially asking what those future dollars are worth in dollar terms right now.
For Archer-Daniels-Midland, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $4.71b. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for the next few years, including projected free cash flow of $1.36b in 2026 and $1.70b in 2027. Simply Wall St then extrapolates additional years out to 2035 using a set of declining growth assumptions.
Adding up all those projected cash flows and discounting them back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $29.44 per share. Compared with the current share price of about $67.31, the model suggests the stock is around 128.6% above this DCF estimate, which points to a rich DCF valuation on these inputs.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Archer-Daniels-Midland may be overvalued by 128.6%. Discover 871 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Story Continues
ADM Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. This is why it is a common anchor for valuation work.
What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify paying a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower P/E.
Archer-Daniels-Midland currently trades on a P/E of 27.21x. That sits above the Food industry average of 21.20x, but a little below the peer group average of 29.73x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 22.06x, which reflects factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with industry or peers because it adjusts for Archer-Daniels-Midland’s own fundamentals rather than assuming all Food companies deserve the same multiple. Comparing the current 27.21x P/E with the 22.06x Fair Ratio suggests the shares trade at a premium to this calibrated benchmark.
Result: OVERVALUED
NYSE:ADM P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way for you to put your own story about Archer-Daniels-Midland on top of the numbers such as fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins.
A Narrative on Simply Wall St links three things: how you see the company’s story, the financial forecast that follows from that view, and the fair value that results from those assumptions.
On the Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives are an accessible tool that helps you decide what to do by comparing each Narrative’s Fair Value to the current share price so you can see whether a particular story implies Archer-Daniels-Midland is expensive, cheap, or roughly in line with that view.
Narratives also update as new information arrives, such as fresh earnings or news, so your fair value view can move with the story instead of staying stuck on old data.
For Archer-Daniels-Midland, one Narrative might assume a relatively cautious future and arrive at a low fair value, while another might assume a stronger outlook and therefore support a much higher fair value. You can see both side by side to decide which story you find more convincing.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Archer-Daniels-Midland? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NYSE:ADM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ADM.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com