Alphabet has just reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing sales of US$113,828 million and net income of US$34,455 million, alongside plans to lift 2026 capital expenditures to as much as US$185 billion to support AI and cloud infrastructure.
At the same time, Alphabet is preparing a large expansion of its physical footprint in India, with office space that could house up to 20,000 additional employees, highlighting how its AI-led growth ambitions are increasingly global in scope.
We’ll now examine how Alphabet’s decision to nearly double AI-related capital spending reshapes the company’s broader investment narrative.
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To own Alphabet today, you really have to believe that its AI-first pivot can keep reinforcing the strength of Search, YouTube and Cloud without eroding profitability, even as the company leans into far heavier investment. The latest quarter did its part on that front: US$113,828 million in Q4 sales and US$34,455 million in net income underline a business that is still throwing off very large amounts of cash, while management talks about accelerating AI-driven growth across Search, Cloud and subscriptions. The big swing factor now is capital intensity. Alphabet’s plan to lift 2026 capex toward US$175 billion to US$185 billion, on top of a growing physical footprint in India, reshapes the near-term story. Instead of “can AI move the needle?,” the key questions become how quickly that spend converts into durable revenue and whether returns stay high enough to justify such a step change in outlays. With the stock only a few percent below consensus fair value and options pricing already reflecting elevated volatility, the market reaction so far suggests investors see the spending hike as a real risk, but not yet a thesis-breaker.
However, there is one aspect of this capex ramp that investors should be especially alert to. Alphabet’s share price has been on the slide but might be dropping deeper into value territory. Find out whether it’s a bargain at this price.
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Across 203 fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community, views span roughly US$170 to just under US$400 per share, underscoring how wide the gap can be between individual expectations and current pricing. Set against management’s plan to commit up to US$185 billion of capex in 2026, that spread in community outcomes highlights how differently investors are weighing the possibility that heavier AI and cloud spending alters Alphabet’s earnings power over the next few years.
Explore 203 other fair value estimates on Alphabet – why the stock might be worth 49% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include GOOGL.
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