By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Feb. 9.
Delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data will be the key focus as investors gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates again.
In Europe, eurozone and U.K. gross domestic product data will be watched, while in Asia a week packed with key growth data and political developments lies ahead.
U.S.
U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls data will be released on Wednesday, having been delayed from Feb. 6 due to the partial government shutdown.
This is considered a key piece of data, which should guide investors’ views on when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates again.
Recent data point to a robust U.S. economy but a weakening labor market and slowing inflation. Weak data that bring forward rate-cut expectations would weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields. U.S. money markets currently fully price the next 25 basis-point rate cut in July, with some chance of an earlier reduction in June, LSEG data show.
Analysts at UBS said in a note that they expect nonfarm payrolls rose by 90,000 in January, although they warned that methodological changes being implemented with annual revisions in this report “pose unusually wide risks.”
January inflation data are released on Friday–delayed from Feb. 11–and these will also be closely watched to see whether inflationary pressures are slowing sufficiently to allow for rate cuts in the coming months.
The January data will be key since many firms tend to raise prices at the beginning of each year, often resulting in higher-than-expected figures, HSBC economists said in a note. “We expect that core CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.6% year-on-year and that headline CPI inflation fell to 2.5% from 2.7%.”
Other data due include the fourth-quarter employment cost index on Tuesday, followed by weekly jobless claims and January existing home sales data on Thursday.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Eurozone
The week’s data calendar is thin after the European Central Bank’s policy meeting where it left policy rates on hold, as expected. President Christine Lagarde reiterated that monetary policy is “in a good place,” with risks broadly balanced. This suggests that the ECB sees no reason anytime soon to change key interest rates, with the deposit rate staying at 2.00%.
The highlight will be the second estimate eurozone GDP data for the fourth quarter on Friday. Other data are France’s fourth-quarter unemployment data on Tuesday and Spanish CPI on Friday.
Germany will conduct an auction for April 2031 Bobl on Tuesday and for August 2054 and August 2056 Bunds on Wednesday.
The Netherlands will reopen the January 2044 green DSL on Tuesday, while Austria will offer February 2031- and February 2036-dated bonds. Portugal will hold a bond auction on Wednesday, while Greece has an auction window for the same day. An Italian auction is due on Thursday.
U.K.
U.K. gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter are due on Thursday. “The fourth quarter GDP is projected to rise 0.2%, quarter on quarter, driven by gains in construction, services, and post-Budget confidence,” HSBC economists said.
The GDP will be closely watched after the Bank of England’s recent interest-rate decision caused investors to bring forward their expectations for when rates will be cut again.
The BOE left interest rates on hold at 3.75% but in an unexpectedly tight vote of 5-4, with four policymakers favoring a 25 basis-point rate cut. Any signs of weakness in the economy could increase prospects of a rate reduction in April, or possibly as early as the BOE’s next meeting in March.
The Bank of England will publish the bank’s Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report on Tuesday.
U.K. industrial production data for December are due on Thursday.
The U.K. plans to sell March 2031 gilt on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
Norway’s inflation data for January are due on Tuesday. Inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.2% in December 2025 from 3.0% in November, supporting the Norges Bank’s cautious stance on cutting interest rates. Norway’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product data are also out Monday.
Sweden and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
Switzerland
Swiss inflation data for January will be released on Friday. Inflation rose to an annual rate of 0.1% in December from a flat reading in November. However, the market will be looking for any signs of renewed low inflationary pressures given the Swiss franc’s recent appreciation.
“A strong franc means weaker imported inflation, which poses an additional problem for such an open economy facing already low inflationary pressure,” Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister said in a note.
Switzerland will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.
Mexico
Mexico’s inflation data for January are due on Monday. HSBC expects inflation to rise to 3.8% in January from 3.7% in December and core inflation to rise to 4.5% from 4.3%. “A surging downside risk could come from the Mexican peso’s strength in recent weeks, which will likely help to ease some pressure from tradable goods prices,” the bank’s economists said in a note.
“While noncore prices remain anchored by low fresh food prices, we expect an eventual reversal of this effect, as significant low comparison bases will start to reflect more clearly.”
Japan
Investors are closely watching how the outcome of the Feb. 8 lower house election will reshape Japan’s fiscal and monetary policy. Markets are also looking for any clues on the timing of the next Bank of Japan rate hike in a speech by policy board member Naoki Tamura on Friday.
The election is aimed at securing a stronger mandate to deliver fiscal impulse, Saxo Markets’ Charu Chanana said. “Markets are treating this as a fiscal credibility test. With debt levels already high and servicing costs more sensitive as rates rise, investors will focus less on the promises and more on the funding mechanics,” said the chief investment strategist.
December current-account data and January bank-lending figures are due Monday. Japanese markets are closed on Wednesday for a national holiday.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to conduct outright purchases across five sectors of the Japanese government bond market on Thursday, including bonds with maturities of more than five years up to 10 years, more than 10 years up to 25 years, and longer than 25 years.
The Ministry of Finance will auction about 250 billion yen of 10-year inflation-indexed government bonds on Tuesday. The issue will be a reopening of the May 2025 bond and might attract demand from investors seeking to hedge against rising inflation in Japan.
China
China’s first inflation prints of the year are in the spotlight on Wednesday, which will show if the modest improvements seen toward the end of 2025 have held up.
Consumer inflation picked up in December, but factory-gate prices remained in contraction, capping another year marked by persistent deflationary pressures and weak domestic demand.
A Wall Street Journal poll of economists projects a cooling off in January’s CPI print to 0.4% from 0.8%. The producer price index is expected to have stayed in negative territory, but improve to -1.5% from -1.9%.
The January consumer inflation data will likely be dragged by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday last year, economists said.
Higher commodity prices offer a lift to the PPI but not enough to keep it out of contraction for a 40th consecutive month. Still, a -1.5% reading would be the highest PPI result since July 2024, Citi economists said.
On Friday, eyes turn to house-price data as the property sector slump drags on without much in the way of improvement.
Prices continued to decline through last year, and there is little to spur hopes of a turnaround yet as policy measures continue to be modest in scale.
Worse-than-expected outcomes in inflation and house-price data could raise expectations of stronger stimulus to boost demand and bolster confidence.
Australia
In Australia, attention will focus on December household spending data due Monday.
Strong consumer demand has been a key driver of the economic recovery and a major reason the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates on Feb. 3, while signaling that further increases are likely.
The National Australia Bank’s business survey on Tuesday will also be closely watched, particularly the capacity-utilization measure. RBA Gov. Michele Bullock has argued that inflation pressures reflect capacity constraints, with demand running ahead of limited supply.
On Wednesday, markets will focus on a fireside chat with Deputy Gov. Andrew Hauser at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry business conference in Sydney. Hauser is expected to reaffirm the RBA’s determination to return inflation to the 2%-3% target range as soon as possible.
Financial markets currently assign an 85% probability to another rate increase in May, while the RBA’s own forecasts suggest two more hikes may be ahead.
December household spending is expected to have risen 0.3% on month, or 6.1% on year. Consumer confidence data on Tuesday is likely to show a further decline following the recent rate hike. December-quarter housing finance data due Wednesday is expected to show 2% on-quarter growth. The earnings season is expected to ramp up, with profits expected to begin recovering after three years of declines.
Taiwan
Taiwan will release its first set of 2026 trade data on Monday. Exports are expected to maintain momentum after hitting a record high in 2025, driven by robust demand linked to the global artificial-intelligence boom.
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02-06-26 0940ET