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Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) is drawing fresh interest after a mixed pattern of returns, with a roughly 5% gain over the past 3 months offset by negative moves over the past month and year.
With the stock last closing at $171.82 and a 3 year total return above 35%, investors are weighing how its current valuation and recent performance line up with the company’s role in the US agricultural finance market.
See our latest analysis for Federal Agricultural Mortgage.
Recent trading has been choppy, with a 1 year total shareholder return of around a 10% decline contrasting with a 3 year total shareholder return of about 36%. This suggests momentum has cooled after a stronger multi year run.
If this mixed performance has you reassessing where to put fresh capital, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our screener of 22 top founder-led companies.
With Federal Agricultural Mortgage trading around $171.82, showing a 5 year total return above 130% and sitting at a discount to the current analyst price target, the key question is whether there is still an opportunity for investors or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
With Federal Agricultural Mortgage last closing at $171.82 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $226, the gap between price and narrative value is hard to ignore.
Expansion into renewable energy, broadband, and infrastructure finance is driving significant new business volume and higher spreads, positioning Farmer Mac to benefit from increasing demand for financing related to sustainability and rural connectivity initiatives, which should support revenue and earnings growth going forward.
Curious what has to happen for that higher value to stack up? The narrative leans on faster revenue growth, resilient margins, and a future earnings multiple that stays below the broader industry. The full story is in how those pieces fit together over the next few years.
Result: Fair Value of $226 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are clear pressure points here, including potential policy shifts around renewable incentives and rising credit risk in newer areas like broadband and infrastructure lending.
Find out about the key risks to this Federal Agricultural Mortgage narrative.
While the popular narrative sees Federal Agricultural Mortgage as 24% undervalued at $171.82 versus a $226 fair value, our SWS DCF model points the other way, with a fair value of $149.89. This would make the current price look overvalued. Which framework do you think fits your own assumptions better?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
AGM Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Federal Agricultural Mortgage for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or just prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a tailored view of Federal Agricultural Mortgage in just a few minutes and Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Federal Agricultural Mortgage research is our analysis highlighting 6 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AGM.
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