Last October, Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s Prime Minister after being elected as head of the Liberal Democratic Party, the conservative political party that has governed Japan for most of its postwar history. And on Sunday, after calling a snap election last month, she secured a supermajority in Japan’s lower house of parliament, giving her significant power to increase both military and domestic spending, push a harder line against China, and pursue a more restrictive immigration policy. Like Margaret Thatcher, whom she frequently invokes, Takaichi is her country’s first female Prime Minister, and she is operating in a largely male-dominated political system. She has already received strong support from President Trump, whom she will likely pressure to maintain a hawkish stance against China.
I recently spoke by phone with Andrew Gordon, a professor of modern Japanese history at Harvard, about the significance of the election. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed what Takaichi’s landslide victory will mean for Japan’s relationship with China, the changes that have pushed Japanese politics rightward in recent decades, and how this election fits into the broader narrative of rising global populism.
Does this election feel significant in the context of postwar Japanese politics?
The scale of the L.D.P. victory is unprecedented since the Second World War. It marks the first time a party has secured a supermajority on its own. And it is especially impressive in the context of the last thirty years, when there’s been some degree of parity between the L.D.P. and the opposition. The 2005 election, where Junichiro Koizumi led the L.D.P. to a major victory, was also a large margin, but this was bigger.
The other thing that’s notable is that there’s a stereotype, which I think has many kernels of truth to it, that Japanese politics is not heavily driven by personality. And a lot of the politicians who have been Prime Minister, and led the L.D.P. or other parties, haven’t done so with a lot of charisma. But Takaichi’s victory seemed to be largely driven by the surprising spike in the popularity of the Prime Minister. So that’s pretty unusual. The Koizumi election is the closest analogy I can think of, because of his persona. He had this rapid-fire way of speaking in short sentences, bluntly and clearly, that seemed to attract people, and he successfully made the election a referendum on him as much as on policy.
But that is really unusual. I was in Japan from October through part of January. And the gap between Takaichi’s popularity and her party’s popularity seemed to be either as high or higher than it has ever been between a Prime Minister and their party. Usually, the popularity levels of the Prime Minister and the party are close. And sometimes the Prime Minister’s popularity is underwater compared to the party. So the big question was whether Takaichi could individually raise the profile and increase support for the L.D.P. And she succeeded.
Do you think it is helpful to view Takaichi’s success through the prism of right-wing nationalism’s rise across the world?
There is no question that it is absolutely part of the story. And the surprising success of the far-right Sanseito Party in last summer’s House of Councillors election, which determines the makeup of the upper house of parliament, seemed to come from their xenophobic, hard-line, anti-immigrant, anti-foreigner attitude, which is of a piece with what we see not only in this country, but in a growing number of countries. So it seemed pretty clear that the L.D.P. was going to try to move in that direction and to co-opt that support for the far right, which is a political strategy the L.D.P. has been very good at in the past. They will shift their own policies in the direction of the new sentiment among voters, and in both right and left directions. The best case for the other direction was in the nineteen-seventies and nineteen-eighties, when environmental protection was very popular on the political left and left-of-center, and the L.D.P. moved in that direction effectively and co-opted that. But they are moving right now, especially on immigration.
The other major issue is the economy and inflation. And although it’s hard to trust that anyone has a good answer for reducing the inflation of the past three or so years, including the L.D.P., nobody else seemed to have a convincing case of what they were going to do. So voters seemed to say, “O.K., well, this new person, let’s give her a chance.”
Well, increased nationalism and hostility to immigrants, combined with concern about inflation, is obviously a widespread political reality. But, in this case, the Party that benefitted is the largest and most successful Party in postwar Japan, whereas in other countries, you have had older, more established parties struggle.
Right. Although, the other aspect of Takaichi’s rise that doesn’t exactly fit into the worldwide rightward drift is her hawkishness. As we see in the United States, much of that rightward drift has been isolationist.
We’ll see about that, but go on.
Yes, it may not have turned out that way here in the U.S. But it is interesting how readily Takaichi has been willing to provoke China. Last year, in response to a question from a member of parliament, she stated that the Japanese government would act in defense of Taiwan in the case of a Chinese attack. Her answer is a departure in terms of how publicly it was stated. I think what she meant to say, which also would have been provocative, was that Japan would defend Taiwan because it has an alliance with the United States, who, of course, would be involved. Her answer amounted to saying we would stand with the United States, but that was left implicit. So it was a very provocative statement, even though nobody really knows what the United States will do these days, because Takaichi could have, if she wanted to, signalled to the Chinese government not to fool around with Taiwan through a back channel and easily avoided all of this fuss. But, because she said it publicly in the national legislature, it led the Chinese to respond with fury.