Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St’s easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.
Dow (DOW) is in the spotlight after launching an aggressive restructuring program that includes about 4,500 job cuts, or 13% of its global workforce, along with new investment in AI and automation.
See our latest analysis for Dow.
Investors have reacted strongly to Dow’s restructuring and cost focused plan, with a 30 day share price return of 14.97% and a 90 day share price return of 41.69%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return sits at a 9.7% decline, which points to improving momentum after a weaker multi year stretch.
If this kind of restructuring story has your attention, it could be a useful time to see what else is moving and check out our screener of 23 top founder-led companies.
With Dow shares up sharply over the past few months but still carrying an intrinsic discount estimate of about 40%, the key question is whether this restructuring reset is mispriced or if the market is already banking on future growth.
Against Dow’s last close of $32.49, the most followed narrative anchors on a fair value of $27.81, creating a clear gap between price and modeled worth.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $28.647 for Dow based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $45.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $20.0.
Want to see what justifies valuing an unprofitable chemicals group above its current earnings power? The narrative focuses on a rebuild in margins, a shift in earnings level, and a future P/E that assumes those changes really stick.
Result: Fair Value of $27.81 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are still pressure points, including higher feedstock and energy costs as well as ongoing regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty, that could challenge margins and undercut this earnings reset story.
Find out about the key risks to this Dow narrative.
Here is the twist. While the most followed narrative tags Dow as 16.8% overvalued on a fair value of $27.81, the current P/S of 0.6x sits below peers at 0.8x and the fair ratio of 0.9x, which points to a market that is still pricing in some caution. Which signal do you think deserves more weight?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
NYSE:DOW P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026
If this framework does not quite fit how you see Dow, or you would rather test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Dow research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If you are serious about sharpening your portfolio, do not stop with a single stock. Casting a wider net can uncover opportunities you would otherwise miss.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include DOW.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com