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Energy Transfer (ET) has attracted attention after a period of mixed returns, with a small 1 year total return decline alongside gains over the past month, past 3 months, and year to date.
For income and infrastructure focused investors, the combination of recent price performance, reported revenue of US$85.5b and net income of US$4.2b, and the partnership’s broad midstream footprint can raise questions about how the current unit price reflects its business profile.
See our latest analysis for Energy Transfer.
At a share price of US$18.61, Energy Transfer has shown firm positive momentum recently, with a 30 day share price return of 7.26% and a 90 day share price return of 9.99%. Its 1 year total shareholder return is slightly negative, while its 5 year total shareholder return is very large, which suggests that recent moves may reflect shifting views on long term cash generation and risk.
If you want to see how other infrastructure and power related names stack up, this is a good moment to scan our list of 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as a starting point.
With US$85.5b in revenue, US$4.2b in net income, and a recent mix of short term gains alongside a slightly negative 1 year return, is Energy Transfer quietly undervalued, or is the market already pricing in potential changes to its valuation?
Energy Transfer’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $21.45 per unit, compared with the recent close at $18.61. This frames the current debate around future cash flows and project execution.
The company’s NGL export capacity expansions at the Nederland terminal and new pipeline loopings position it to benefit from increased U.S. hydrocarbon exports to international markets, supporting sustained throughput and export revenues as global energy demand rises.
Curious what kind of revenue growth and margin path is baked into that fair value, and how long dated contracts feed into the model assumptions? The narrative lays out a detailed bridge from today’s earnings base to its future profit run rate, including how large capital projects and export capacity are treated in the cash flow build. If you want to see exactly which forecasts need to play out to support that $21.45 figure, the full narrative breaks those expectations out step by step.
Result: Fair Value of $21.45 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the story can change quickly if large projects like Desert Southwest face cost overruns or permitting delays, or if re-contracting on key assets hurts future margins.
Find out about the key risks to this Energy Transfer narrative.
The picture so far mixes optimism with caution, so it is worth checking the numbers and risks yourself rather than relying on any single view. You can quickly get a balanced snapshot by looking at our summary of 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs for Energy Transfer.
If you stop with just one stock, you might miss opportunities that fit your goals better, so put a few minutes into comparing ideas with the Simply Wall Street Screener.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ET.
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