Portugal has already regained credibility – Now the most demanding phase begins

We are not talking about a one-off adjustment. We are talking about more than a decade of structural correction. Portugal has gone from an economy marked by persistent external deficits to a country capable of generating current account surpluses, largely driven by the growth of exports of services, tourism, technology and business services.

This surplus has significantly reduced dependence on external financing and improved the country’s net debtor position. Deleveraging did not only occur in the private sector, as it did after the financial crisis. In recent years, there has also been a clear effort to reduce public exposure abroad. This strengthened market confidence and consolidated the perception of lower risk.

But there is an essential point that we cannot ignore. The recovery phase has passed. We have entered the consolidation phase. And consolidating is always more demanding than correcting.

In an international context marked by geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty and possible economic slowdowns, the pace of external improvement will naturally tend to moderate. A structural setback is not anticipated, but neither should we assume that the trend of improvement will continue at the same pace without additional effort.

In my view, Portugal is at a decisive moment. He has already proven that he can adjust, reorganize and gain credibility. Now you need to prove that you can sustain that position in a less favourable environment.

The current structure of the Portuguese economy, with a strong weight of services and less direct exposure to industrial tariffs, offers some protection against trade shocks. However, we are highly dependent on international confidence, tourist flows, foreign investment and European financial stability. If the European economy slows down or new turbulence arises, the impact will be felt.

The real issue is productivity and added value. The country needs to continue to strengthen its export base in technological, advanced industrial and renewable energy sectors. It needs to attract capital that brings knowledge and not just volume. It needs to maintain fiscal discipline without compromising strategic investment.

Portugal is no longer seen as a structural risk. This is a relevant achievement. But credibility is not a permanent asset. It is an asset that requires constant maintenance.

The next decade will not be about regaining reputation. It will be about preserving and expanding it. And that depends on the decisions we make now, while we still have room for maneuvering and accumulated confidence.