Aviva set to resume buybacks as full-year results approach Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.)Â reports full-year results on 5 March, and the headline number investors will be watching most closely is not the profit figure but the buyback.
Deutsche Bank, which carries a ‘buy’ rating and a 760p price target on the stock against a current share price of around 655 pence, expects operating profit of £2.2 billion and a dividend of 39.3 pence per share. More pointedly, it forecasts the resumption of share buybacks at £350 million, a signal that management is confident enough in the capital position to return cash more aggressively to shareholders.
Beyond the headline numbers, Deutsche Bank flags three areas likely to draw the most attention from analysts and investors.
The first is property and casualty, where the market will want detail on retail and commercial lines pricing, the trajectory of claims costs and how frequency trends are developing across Aviva’s UK, Irish and Canadian operations.
The second is autonomous vehicles. It is an emerging question for the whole insurance sector rather than an Aviva-specific one, but management’s thinking on how self-driving technology reshapes both retail and commercial motor risk will be closely watched.
The third is reinsurance. The integration of the Direct Line book has given Aviva greater scale, and investors will be looking for evidence that more competitive conditions in the reinsurance market have translated into better pricing or improved terms on the risks Aviva cedes. If the Direct Line deal is already delivering tangible reinsurance benefits, that would be a meaningful early win.
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