Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the euro area economy to grow 1.3% this year—the same pace as last year and roughly in line with consensus estimates.
Higher fiscal spending in Germany is projected to boost GDP growth in the region’s largest economy by half a percentage point in 2026. Meanwhile, Spain is expected to be Europe’s best performing major economy, growing an estimated 2.4% this year, helped by its expanding professional services.
And while EU exports to the US have dropped sharply, demand in other export destinations has held up better. “This supports our view that the tariff-related growth drag has likely peaked and will fade into 2026,” explains Jari Stehn, chief Europe economist.
Consumer spending is expected to be resilient. Our economists forecast real household income growth of around 1.5% this year. When combined with a similar saving rate to 2025, this implies an average annual increase in consumption of 1.3%.
But these improvements are likely to be capped by structural headwinds. Export competition from China could hurt European trade, and the bloc still needs to address its high energy prices, regulatory burden, and demographic challenges, Stehn says.