Nvidia daily candlestick chart. Source: TradingView

Importantly, the company’s guidance noted that fiscal Q1 FY27 revenue is expected to come in at US$78 billion, considerably above the US$73 billion estimate. However, despite this, the response from investors was underwhelming – I am not entirely sure why, given the results. There were a couple of narratives circulating in financial media, but, for me, it felt like a classic case of buy the rumour, sell the news, compounded by the Stock’s price touching gloves with range resistance.

The Week That Is

Market participants welcome a busy data slate this week. While the geopolitical situation is front and centre, the macro focus will be on US jobs data.

Ahead of Friday’s US February jobs report, I will be keeping a close eye on the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs on today and Wednesday, respectively. While the headline numbers are important, I will equally be monitoring the sub-indices for prices paid, new orders, and employment. However, with the services component accounting for around 80% of GDP output, this is the more influential report.

The February ADP employment report is also released on Wednesday. Although the correlation between this print and Friday’s government employment statement is low, it can be market-moving and may alter how traders expect Friday’s number to come in.

Undoubtedly, Friday’s report will be important for the markets; they’re essentially wanting to see if January’s blowout report, which surprised to the upside across all key measures, is repeated in February. I think this report will take on extra importance, given recent Fed speak – particularly from Governor Chris Waller, who stated that he may be open to holding the target rate steady if jobs indicate a more ‘solid footing’.

Consequently, a solid beat would likely underpin the USD as investors price out rate cuts; conversely, a weak print would likely have the opposite effect. The jobs report will need to be markedly disappointing to bring March and April’s meetings back into the Frame. Money markets are fully pricing in a July 25-bp rate cut, though June remains a strong possibility at around 70% odds (-15 bps of easing implied).

Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill