The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 56.1 in February from 56.3 in January, marking the softest improvement in operating conditions for nine months. The index remains comfortably above the 50 neutral mark, indicating expansion across the non-oil economy even as momentum has cooled from last year’s peak.
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Growth cools, but demand holds
Output growth eased to a six-month low, though businesses continued to report solid gains in activity. Survey respondents frequently cited stronger customer demand and new project approvals, alongside improved domestic sales and stepped-up marketing efforts. Competitive pressures in some markets tempered the pace of expansion, yet order books continued to rise.
New orders remained a central driver of activity, supported by government initiatives, digital development efforts and collaborative client projects. International sales also expanded for a seventh consecutive month, though at a slightly slower rate than earlier in the cycle.
Naif Al-Ghaith, Chief Economist at Riyad Bank, said, “Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector sustained its expansionary trajectory with a PMI reading of 56.1 in February, though the pace of output growth eased to its lowest level since last August. This performance was driven by robust domestic demand and a steady flow of new project approvals. Despite the moderation in momentum, the sector remains firmly in growth territory, supported by seven months of rising international sales and an improving volume of new orders.”
Businesses appear to be recalibrating after a period of rapid expansion, with the PMI on a gradual downward path since reaching one of its highest levels in over a decade last October. Conditions remain strong overall, but the data suggest a shift toward steadier, more measured growth.
Hiring surge drives record wage inflation
Employment rose sharply in February, with the job creation rate climbing to a four-month high and ranking among the strongest recorded in the survey’s history. Firms cited increased sales volumes and a build-up of outstanding orders as reasons to expand payrolls.
That hiring push has come at a cost. Staff expenses surged at the fastest pace since the survey began in August 2009, reflecting higher salaries offered to attract and retain workers, particularly in technical and sales roles. The sharp rise in wage bills marks a key feature of February’s data and signals growing competition for skilled labour.
Al-Ghaith said, “A key highlight of the February results was the sizeable increase in employment, as firms expanded their workforce to manage higher workloads and new business inflows. This acceleration in hiring signals confidence in near-term demand, even as overall output growth moderated. At the same time, supply chain performance improved further, with delivery times shortening amid better coordination and operational efficiencies.”
Prices climb amid cost pressures
Rising wage costs fed through to selling prices, which increased at the joint-fastest pace since May 2023, matching October’s recent high. Companies also reported higher supplier charges and increased metals prices. A reduction in fuel payments helped moderate overall purchase-price inflation, while some firms benefited from renegotiated vendor contracts.
Supply chains showed signs of improvement despite stronger input buying. Delivery times shortened to the greatest extent in nine months, reflecting operational gains and changes in vendor relationships. Companies continued to raise purchasing volumes in line with expanding workloads, while maintaining a balanced approach to inventory management.
Confidence steady into year ahead
Expectations for the next 12 months remained positive, with firms linking anticipated output growth to new client projects, firmer demand and supportive domestic economic conditions. The overall picture suggests an economy adjusting to a more sustainable pace after an extended period of rapid expansion.
Al-Ghaith said, “Overall, February’s results point to an economy that remains strong but is moving onto a more sustainable balance. Growth has moderated, yet demand and hiring activity continue to anchor the expansion. The broader trend remains positive, with businesses actively adjusting their capacity while maintaining a high degree of confidence in underlying market conditions. This balanced approach to inventory and staffing suggests the private sector is well positioned to navigate evolving economic dynamics throughout the remainder of the year.”
Consumers and businesses alike face a mixed environment. Growth remains solid, and hiring is robust, yet rising wages and selling prices could translate into firmer costs across parts of the economy. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector remains firmly in expansion mode, though the latest data indicate that the breakneck pace of last year is giving way to steadier, more sustainable momentum.
Nivetha Dayanand is Assistant Business Editor at Gulf News, where she spends her days unpacking money, markets, aviation, and the big shifts shaping life in the Gulf. Before returning to Gulf News, she launched Finance Middle East, complete with a podcast and video series.
Her reporting has taken her from breaking spot news to long-form features and high-profile interviews. Nivetha has interviewed Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed Al Saud, Indian ministers Hardeep Singh Puri and N. Chandrababu Naidu, IMF’s Jihad Azour, and a long list of CEOs, regulators, and founders who are reshaping the region’s economy.
An Erasmus Mundus journalism alum, Nivetha has shared classrooms and newsrooms with journalists from more than 40 countries, which probably explains her weakness for data, context, and a good follow-up question.
When she is away from her keyboard (AFK), you are most likely to find her at the gym with an Eminem playlist, bingeing One Piece, or exploring games on her PS5.