Potential support sits around the November 2024 high at $77.84, the October 2024 and April 2025 highs at $72.36 – $72.22 and at November to mid-December 2024 highs at $71.47 – $71.38.
While WTI remains above its 2 March low at $69.20, the short-term uptrend is deemed to stay intact and while the next lower 26 February low at $63.60 holds, the medium-term uptrend too.
Equity markets face downside pressure
Equity markets have moved lower, though losses remain measured as investors had partly priced in the risk of conflict. However, with US President Trump suggesting the campaign could last several weeks, a widening of the war -particularly if oil and gas facilities are hit or Hormuz is closed – could trigger a deeper risk-off move, further stock market declines and a sharper spike in crude prices.
From a technical perspective the February lows are the ones to watch as a fall through and daily chart close below these may point to a medium-term top forming in global stock markets.
In case of the S&P 500, a drop below its mid-February low at 6776 would probably engage the mid-December low at 6720. Failure there may lead to the mid-September to November lows and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 6,569 – 6,522 being revisited. Such a sell-off would represent an around 5% decline from current levels.
S&P 500 weekly candlestick chart