GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, I’m Tim Ross, here a day earlier than usual, with POLITICO’s morning roundup of what’s moving the needle in European politics. Sarah Wheaton will be at the helm Wednesday.
DRIVING THE DAY: BACKING A PALESTINIAN STATE 
MAJORITY OF EU MEMBERS NOW RECOGNIZE THE STATE OF PALESTINE: That was the announcement from António Costa, president of the European Council, speaking at the United Nations Monday night (Brussels time). Those countries are: Belgium, Czechia, Hungary, Cyprus, Spain, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, Belgium, Portugal, Malta, France and Luxembourg.
Silent applause: While Costa didn’t quite go as far as explicitly welcoming the recognition of statehood (or encouraging more countries to follow suit), it was pretty clear from his tone that he viewed the development as a big step in the right direction.
That’s bold, given how split the EU in reality still is on the Gaza war. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who waited politely to one side for Costa to finish his speech before taking the mic, did not go as far as he’d done toward endorsing the immediate recognition of a Palestinian state. Von der Leyen, who is a German conservative after all, stressed the centrality of a two-state solution to the prospects for peace, a plan that many speakers agreed was now in grave danger. She promised more EU efforts to raise cash to rebuild Gaza, too.
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Reminder: Germany, Europe’s economic and political powerhouse, is among the countries holding up von der Leyen’s plan to sanction Israel over the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Gaza. But alongside Canada, the U.K., Ireland and others, French President Emmanuel Macron declared formally his own country’s official recognition of the state of Palestine as he opened the special conference he co-chaired with Saudi Arabia.
Protesters in Italy clashed with police when demonstrations against Israel’s Gaza offensive turned ugly on Monday. Tens of thousands of people marched in solidarity with Palestinians in Rome, Reuters reports.
Collision warning: The fact that most EU capitals are recognizing Palestinian statehood once again puts the old continent at odds with Donald Trump. The White House spokesperson reiterated, as the U.N. gathering in New York got under way, that Trump believed recognizing Palestine was “a reward to Hamas” that “does nothing to end this conflict.”
Trump incoming: The U.N. General Assembly’s main meeting gets going today, and Trump is due to give his own speech. It’s a fair bet he won’t follow Macron’s lead. But my U.S. colleagues reflect on how the world has changed since U.N. delegates laughed at Trump when he appeared in front of them in his first term. Now they court his favor, nominate him for the Nobel Peace prize and one even called him “daddy.” Who could forget that?
Macron’s moment: The French president won a big round of applause for his declaration. Read Clea Caulcutt’s report of his historic speech. Playbook’s own Nick Vinocur took a deeper look at Macron’s big moment in the context of exceptional French interventions at the U.N. in the past.
Manu-watching: While the proceedings at the U.N. were an understandably solemn affair, Macron’s chummy manner with other world leaders as he chaired his special conference on the two-state solution was almost as fascinating as some of their statements. It was a big occasion for him after all, especially with his domestic political project in permanent disarray.
Prayer hands: As presidents and prime ministers stepped up to the podium to make their speeches, Macron peered down from his elevated position on the chairperson’s raised platform. He took to thanking speakers by catching their eye and giving them a “prayer hands” emoji gesture. A lucky few (G’day Australia) also received a presidential thumbs up.
Google’s AI advice is that the prayer hands (or “namaste”) gesture is not so common in France and should be avoided lest offense be caused. AI is obviously far from perfect in its guidance, but it claimed that some people think the prayer hands emoji represents a high-five, viewed from the side. Maybe Playbook is mistaken and Macron was just high-fiving himself all along.
BRUSSELS ON TOUR: The EU establishment has turned out in force at the U.N. this week. In addition to Costa and von der Leyen, at least five other commissioners are in the Big Apple to take part in various meetings during the U.N. General Assembly week.
Recognizing Palestine isn’t enough: Hadja Lahbib, the European commissioner for crisis management, said Palestinians urgently need more than warm words about statehood from world leaders. After holding talks on humanitarian action, Lahbib told Playbook: “I am currently in New York at a historic moment, as France and many other countries officially recognised the State of Palestine.
“This is a significant step — but recognition cannot be merely symbolic while Gaza is being wiped out. We urgently need humanitarian aid to reach the most vulnerable, and it is critical that international humanitarian law [is] upheld,” Lahbib said.
THE OTHER WAR
BRINGING UKRAINE’S CHILDREN HOME: On Tuesday morning in New York (afternoon in Brussels), Ursula von der Leyen will take part in a conference on returning 20,000 Ukrainian children who have been abducted by Russian forces since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. She will call for all the Ukrainian children to be brought home and is expected to confirm that the EU will join the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian children and set out support the bloc will provide to the initiative.
Drone wall: Seven “front line” EU countries will meet with representatives from Ukraine and the bloc’s Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius on Friday to discuss plans for a “drone wall” to protect the eastern border from Russian attack. The initiative follow’s Russia’s drone incursions into Polish and Romanian air space earlier this month, and Moscow’s fighter jets violating Estonian skies last week.
Shoot first: Poland’s PM Donald Tusk warned Putin that his military will shoot down enemy aircraft if they violate its territory. “I want to be very clear. We will make a decision to shoot down flying objects without discussion when they violate our territory and fly over Poland. There is no room for debate here,” Tusk told a press conference on Monday. His Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski doubled down on that message, saying at an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council in New York that if a Russian jet is shot down over NATO airspace, “don’t come here to whine about it.”
Send money: The European Commission has been asked to find new money for the €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme — meant as a cash injection for the bloc’s defense industry — five officials told POLITICO’s Jacopo Barigazzi.
The details of the plan are currently being negotiated between the Commission, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament. There were many complaints that the €1.5 billion promised so far is just “peanuts,” Jacopo reports. Pro subscribers can find the story here.
Sanctions: The EU’s latest sanctions package against Russia is still being discussed by member countries. Jacopo and colleagues have been digging into the draft text, which proposes cutting off liquified natural gas imports from Russia by the end of 2026. More for Pro subscribers here.
A NEW START: As he seeks to return to Trump’s good books, Putin on Monday offered to voluntarily maintain the limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons set in the 2010 New START accord after it expires in February if the U.S. does likewise. Reuters has a write-up.
KREMLIN’S ELECTION-INFLUENCING PLAYBOOK: Pro-Russia disinformation has flooded into Czechia ahead of next month’s election, report Eva Hartog and Ketrin Jochecová. And in Moldova, President Maia Sandu warned Moscow is spending hundreds of millions of euros in an attempt to buy this Sunday’s election.
NOW READ THIS: Jamie Dettmer takes you behind closed doors to a parliamentary meeting held in Kyiv last week, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy didn’t disguise his indignation with domestic critics.
TRUMP DIVIDENDS
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: The EU and Indonesia finalized their free trade agreement, the European Commission announced early this morning. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who is in Indonesia, said the deal “eliminates over 98 percent of tariffs,” adding that Indonesia’s 50 percent levy on cars will be gradually eliminated over five years. The full text of the agreement will be published shortly.
Message to Washington: “In a world of rising protectionism and fragile supply chains, when many turn inward,” the deal “sends a clear signal that the EU and Indonesia are choosing openness and partnership,” Šefčovič said pointedly. Whoever could he be thinking about?
BERLIN DITCHES U.S. ARMS: Germany’s new military procurement plan, obtained by POLITICO’s Chris Lunday, shows that Berlin will steer its massive rearmament drive primarily to European industry, with only 8 percent going for American weapons.
PARLIAMENT CORNER
ORBÁN’S RIVALS IN THE HOT SEAT: The European Parliament’s legal affairs committee will vote today on whether to lift the immunity from prosecution of three Hungarian opposition MEPs facing charges they claim are politically motivated, Max Griera and Elena Giordano write in to report.
Top target: With less than a year until Hungary’s next election, Hungarian authorities have requested Parliament lift immunity for opposition leader Péter Magyar, the MEP who heads the Tisza party and is facing charges of defamation and theft. Magyar is currently the election frontrunner, with his party ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz in the polls. Klára Dobrev, the leader of the left-wing Democratic Coalition, is also facing prosecution for defamation.
MEPs are expected to vote to reject the request to lift these politicians’ immunity, protecting them from facing Hungarian law enforcement proceedings, according to three officials with knowledge of the confidential deliberations between parties.
Less clear cut: One MEP who may not have the same support among her peers is Ilaria Salis, an Italian left-wing activist charged with attempted assault. She spent one year in detention in Hungary before being released after she became an MEP. She fears enough of her fellow lawmakers will ultimately decide to revoke her immunity, and she’ll be extradited to Hungary where she will face a prison sentence, despite the Parliament having denounced Budapest’s rule of law violations in the past. Read more here.
Up to EPP: Ultimately, whether Salis’ immunity is revoked depends on whether EPP lawmakers choose to support her, joining their Socialist, liberal, Green and Left colleagues. If Salis’ immunity is lifted, the decision will move to the plenary session for ratification.
Timing: The legal affairs committee will vote on lifting the MEPs’ immunity today at 10 a.m.
PATRIOTS WANT ANTIFA LISTED AS TERRORIST ORGANIZATION: An MEP from the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament is gathering signatures to file a resolution, obtained by POLITICO, declaring the far-left activist organization Antifa a terrorist entity and calling on EU countries to follow suit and to dismantle its networks with the help of Europol and the Commission.
Following Trump’s footsteps: The move follows Donald Trump’s decision to designate Antifa a terrorist organization last week, in response to the killing of MAGA activist Charlie Kirk. “ANTIFA is a direct threat to our citizens and to democracy itself,” said Belgian lawmaker Tom Vandendriessche in an email circulated among MEPs asking for signatures. (Investigators have not yet found evidence of a direct link between the suspect in Kirk’s killing and extreme left-wing groups, per NBC News.)
Next steps: Vandendriessche will file the motion on Oct. 1. Parliament’s leadership will then decide on its admissibility and, if accepted, refer it to the relevant committee. Even if admissible, it is unlikely to gain a majority.
VDL STORMS
VDL CARRIES CLIMATE CAN: Meanwhile, the EU’s national governments failed to agree a new climate target for the bloc. That will see the EU front the U.N. summit on Wednesday with an embarrassing “statement of intent” instead. But Council President António Costa won’t be there to take the flak for “agenda reasons” — lucky von der Leyen will have to front-up instead.
VDL INTERVIEW CREATES MEDIA STEAM: Stern-faced hacks gave Commission spokesperson Olof Gill a hard time at Monday’s midday press briefing. Their complaint was that von der Leyen had agreed to give an interview to a bunch of European papers — but under transparency-shredding constraints. Namely, that she’d insisted on answering by written Q&A format (ie email) rather than a proper conversational interview. At one point, Gill quipped, “Gimme a break!” He didn’t get one.
IN OTHER NEWS
THE TRUMAN SHOW: Trump and his MAGA movement are waging a “culture war” against Europe, according to a new report by the European Council on Foreign Relations and the European Cultural Foundation. The study likens the EU to Jim Carrey’s character in “The Truman Show,” constantly responding to Trump-scripted crises. Playbook’s own Sarah Wheaton will be moderating a discussion on the study from 4 p.m. today.
SPEAKING OF TRUMP CULTURE WARS — KIMMEL’S BACK: Disney announced that “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” will resume airing today, ending the comedian’s suspension following comments he made on his show about the killing of Charlie Kirk, Aaron Pellish reports. Disney said it suspended Kimmel “to avoid inflaming a tense situation.” The company received intense pressure from Trump allies, including Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr, over Kimmel’s comments.
… But he’s not back everywhere: Sinclair Broadcasting Group, which operates nearly 40 ABC affiliates, said Monday evening that it will not run Kimmel’s show on its stations when the show returns, and will replace it with news programming.
AGENDA
— United Nations General Assembly in New York. Speeches by heads of state and government begin at around 3 p.m. Brussels time. U.N. General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock will kick things off, followed by U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, then Brazilian President Lula da Silva, followed by Donald Trump, later French President Emmanuel Macron will speak, as will Polish President Karol Nawrocki.
— United Nations Security Council meeting on Ukraine. European Council President António Costa expected to deliver remarks at around 6 p.m.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at conference on bringing Ukrainian children back home from Russia.
— Commissioners Teresa Ribera, Dubravka Šuica, Wopke Hoekstra and Magnus Brunner are also in New York for UNGA week.
— Sustainable Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas is in Montreal … meets U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy … meets Indian Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu Kinjarapu … meets Japanese Transport Minister Hiromasa Nakano.
— Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Bali to mark the conclusion of the EU-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.
— Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos is in Sarajevo.
— Agriculture and Fisheries Council. Press conference at 1:30 p.m. Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen, Animal Welfare Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi and Environmental Commissioner Jessika Roswall participate.
BRUSSELS CORNER
WEATHER: High of 18C, chance of rain.
A DIFFERENT KIND OF GUN FIRE: Brussels melted down 377 firearms, which were legally owned but voluntarily handed over to the authorities.
CALLING COMEDY FANS: The Schuman Show is back next week from Oct. 2-4. Tickets here.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Karin Karlsbro; former MEPs Andrew England Kerr, Marie-Christine Vergiat and Ricardo Cortés; Cillian Lohan, from the European Economic and Social Committee; Baresque’s Santa Silapētere; former U.S. Ambassador to the EU Kristen Silverberg; former U.K. Ambassador to the U.S. Karen Pierce; Cherie Blair, founder of the Cherie Blair Foundation for Women.
THANKS TO: Max Griera, Elena Giordano, Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Camille Gijs, Jacopo Barigazzi, Sarah Wheaton ; Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Ferdinand Knapp and producer Dean Southwell.
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