The Extreme Scenarios Lens
Exploring the outer edges to better understand the center.
The Old Peg, The New Peg
As BRICS nations seek to reduce reliance on the dollar, gold is quietly regaining influence as a reference point in trade and reserves.
A full-scale dedollarization – a thought experiment, not a forecast – could imply gold above 10,000 dollars per ounce, a theoretical ceiling if gold reclaimed a meaningful part of its historic monetary role.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s rise as “digital gold” introduces a new factor in safe-haven flows.
In extreme crises, some capital that once went entirely to gold may split with Bitcoin, potentially tempering gold’s upside.
Its influence remains uncertain, shaped by regulation, adoption, and trust.
Over time, Bitcoin may become a secondary beta to gold, absorbing part of the flight-to-safety flows, or, if confidence falters, disappearing from the equation altogether.