By Myra P. Saefong and Barbara Kollmeyer
G-7 finance leaders discuss joint release of reserves
This video grab, taken from UGC images posted on social media on March 7 and 8, 2026, shows fire erupting at an oil depot in Iran’s capital, Tehran. Oil prices soared on Monday to levels not seen since 2022.
Oil prices pulled back Monday, after briefly soaring past $100 a barrel, as talk of a potential emergency release of crude reserves from the Group of Seven nations helped ease concerns over disruptions to the global flow of oil from the Iran conflict.
U.S. and global benchmark prices had touched their highest levels since 2022 on Monday, before retreating from those highs as investors priced in the possibility of a coordinated emergency release of oil reserves by major economies, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at StoneX.
“This is unlikely to provide more than temporary relief” until there is meaningful progress toward peace in the Middle East, he said in market commentary.
Read: Spike in oil prices triggers talk of an economic doomsday scenario
West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery (CL.1) (CLJ26) climbed 6.4% to $96.72 a barrel, pulling back after soaring as much as 30%, to $119.48 at its intraday peak. WTI climbed a record 36% last week and saw its highest finish since 2023, at $90 a barrel, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Global benchmark Brent (BRN00) (BRNK26) saw its May contract rise 5.9% to $98.15 a barrel. It traded as high as $119.50. Prices had climbed by 27% last week, its best weekly performance on record.
WTI and Brent crude both touched their highest intraday levels since June 2022.
Oil reserves to the rescue?
Prices pared earlier gains after the Financial Times reported that G-7 finance ministers would discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency. The IEA didn’t immediately return a request for comment.
The countries have not agreed, at least not yet, on a coordinated release of petroleum reserves, according to French Finance Minister Roland Lescure.
See: G-7 hasn’t yet agreed on deploying unprecedented oil reserves as prices soar
The release of oil reserves could help ease the rise in oil prices “if it is big enough,” said Razaqzada. “But in any case, this will be a temporary respite if there are no signs of the war ending.”
The IEA had released 62 million barrels in March 2022, and a further 120 million barrels a month later, he said, in an effort to ease the price spike triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Some U.S. officials would like to see a joint release of about 25% to 30% of the overall 1.2 billion barrels held in the IEA’s reserve, or 300 million to 400 million barrels, one source told the Financial Times.
“It is difficult to see countries agreeing to this, as clearly no one knows how long the conflict will last,” said Razaqzada.
If the situation persists for two months, Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said Brent oil prices could rise above $110 a barrel in April before gradually declining as supply flows normalize, and could reach $70 by the end of the year. If it lasts four months, Brent could reach around $135 by May, then ease to $85 by the end of the year.
Those forecasts are a far cry from Rystad’s prewar expectations. It expected Brent to average $60 per barrel this year as the global market faced a substantial supply surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day.
Read: Spiking oil prices basically end any chance of a market ‘melt-up,’ says this Wall Street veteran
Iran warns of $200 oil prices
The Iranian regime made it clear that any further attacks on its oil facilities would have a detrimental impact, said Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets.
An Iranian military spokesman warned that the cost of a barrel of oil could reach $200 if Israel and the U.S. continued to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
In Iran on Sunday, Israel launched strikes at four Tehran oil storage facilities, creating a massive, toxic plume of smoke over the city, with Iran hitting a water desalination plant in Bahrain. Later in the day, Iranian state TV announced Mojtaba Khamenei – the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a strike last weekend – had been named the country’s new supreme leader.
“He is clearly unacceptable to both the U.S. and Israel and reflects the hardest of lines from the regime rather than any possible compromise, Venezuela style,” said Michael Every, senior global strategist at Rabobank, in a note to clients.
Major oil producers in the Middle East were also cutting production as available storage has tightened. With the Strait of Hormuz nearly closed, leading to a lack of storage for crude, state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. on Saturday said it had “implemented a precautionary reduction on crude production and refining,” while the United Arab Emirates said production would be lowered.
Investors will be closely watching the Trump administration’s reaction as oil breaches $100 a barrel, said a team at RBC Capital Markets led by Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy.
“We believe that duration will be the determining factor of the ultimate price trajectory for energy. With no clear definition of what winning looks like, it is hard to forecast whether this will be a multiweek or multimonth conflict. Given the course of events, it is unclear whether the administration built an exit on its way into this latest military entanglement,” said RBC’s strategists.
In a social-media post Sunday, Trump said oil prices “will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over,” adding that price hikes are “a very small price to pay” for peace.
Mike Murphy contributed to this report.
-Myra P. Saefong -Barbara Kollmeyer
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03-09-26 1313ET
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