Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

“The Singers” (Netflix)

Oscars Best Live Action Short Film Commentary (Updated March 9, 2026): This category is seeing some serious action, leading up to the ceremony.

Based on experience and reporting, the short film categories are often the most abstained-from and overlooked when it comes to the Oscars. However, this year there are a few titles generating genuine passion among voters, especially in the live action short race.

When it comes to shorts, being the early frontrunner can take you far. That’s why Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata’s French dystopian dark comedy “Two People Exchanging Saliva” has been widely viewed as the film to beat. Starring “Holy Spider” (2022) breakout Zar Amir Ebrahimi, the short depicts a bizarre society where kissing is punishable by death and people pay for goods by receiving slaps in the face. Absurdist comedy can be tantalizing for voters, and a strong European voting bloc could help carry the film across the finish line.

However, as we see year after year, it’s rarely that simple, as evidenced by last year’s surprise winner, “I’m Not a Robot.”

Netflix acquired Sam A. Davis’ “The Singers,” a crowd-pleasing short about an impromptu sing-off inside a bar and has mounted a strong push in the weeks leading up to final voting. Davis, previously nominated for “Nai Nai & Wài Pó” (2022), has built a niche telling stories about unconventional heroes, often crafting compelling subjects within the live action short format.

Lee Knight’s coming-of-age dramedy “A Friend of Dorothy” also has notable support and could naturally appeal to the British voting bloc, particularly with respected actors Stephen Fry and Miriam Margolyes in the cast. Could that support create a vote split that ultimately gives “The Singers” an edge?

Then there’s Meyer Levinson-Blount’s timely “Butcher’s Stain,” which follows Samir, an Arab Israeli supermarket worker in Tel Aviv accused of tearing down hostage posters in the break room. The buzz on this one has been fairly quiet, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have a shot of sneaking onto the stage.

If there’s one film that has proven particularly polarizing on the circuit, it’s “Jane Austen’s Period Drama.” Reactions have ranged from raves — “It’s the best short of any of the three categories,” one voter tells Variety — to outright dismissal. “It’s unbelievably awful,” another anonymous voter says. That kind of polarization can sometimes work in a film’s favor when it comes to Academy voting. Where it ultimately lands remain anyone’s guess.

Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.

Will Win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) — Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Could Win: “The Singers” (Netflix) — Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
Should Win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});