In his ongoing daily briefings, Chris Bambery explores the myth of an invincible military
The Netanyahu government was, of course, caught badly off guard, as were the Israeli security and intelligence services, but they quickly grasped this was an opportunity to finish off the unfinished work of 1948, the Nakba, by the complete removal of the Palestinians, not just from Gaza. This level of ethic cleansing would clearly involve genocide.
Israel’s war on Gaza is unfinished business. Trump’s ceasefire is no such thing. Netanyahu must be hoping his current alliance with the USA will allow him to return to Gaza to finish off that unfinished business. The process of removing the Palestinians from the West Bank is on a longer fuse, but it is burning.
As I have said before, Israel is aiming at more than regime change in Iran. It wants to turn it into another Libya or Syria, weak and divided, bordering on civil war. It clearly wants to destroy the Shi’a regions within Lebanon along with Hezbollah.
Within Israeli politics, there are differences of presentation between Netanyahu and the opposition but not over the aim of creating a Greater Israel, with all that means. The war on Iran is, in many ways, a continuation of that in Gaza. It’s not just about revenge but complete destruction. Israel wants every state in the region to be so fearful of it that they will never challenge it. If Trump jumps ship, as Netanyahu fears, Israel will just wait for the next opportunity to carry on, hopefully with the Americans again.
No ceasefire
Iran understands this, which is why it rejects another ceasefire. However, there are other factors at play. The Gulf States seem to be blaming Israel as much as Iran for the mess they are in. They are, of course, too timid and weak, despite their oil wealth, too anything but their fear is a US-Israeli victory would bequeath them an unstable Iran, which they don’t want, and Israeli ambitions extending to the Gulf.
The horror of Gaza led to profound changes in American public opinion in regards to Israel. The unpopularity of this war can only deepen that. In the short term, this will not shift the pro-Israeli stance of the leadership of either the Republican and Democratic parties, but in the mid to long term, it will surely impact. Netanyahu has said he wants Israel to stand independent of the US, but given the scale of American financial and military support, that’s a fantasy. Without it, Israel is a postage-stamp-sized state with a population less than New York City.
US intelligence is discounting regime change in Iran. Israel had high hopes of a Kurdish rebellion there, but that hasn’t happened. After Trump’s betrayal of Rajova, many Kurds must question the alliance with US imperialism and their Israeli henchmen.
It seems to me the big question is in what state Iran will come out of this war. It is suffering awful destruction, which will take years to rebuild. Israel must hope that if the Islamic Republic survives, it will be too weak to challenge it, and its economy will be so weakened that it will rekindle popular unrest.
Perhaps, but perhaps not. If Trump does declare a nonsensical victory and end a war deeply unpopular at home, Iran is unlikely, as I have argued, to simply agree to a ceasefire. Reparations and an end to sanctions would be potential demands.
Coming back to Israel, it relies heavily on the myth of its invincibility. So did British imperialism. That all came crashing down in World War 2 with the debacle in Malaya and the fall of ‘fortress Singapore’. Across Asia, Britain seemed weak and decadent. Israel will not face an enemy like imperialist Japan but wars rarely go to plan, as the US is discovering now.
In June last year, under Iranian missiles, Israel looked vulnerable. Iran has no need to repeat those attacks. While it concentrates on the Gulf, a few missile attacks on Israel a day are causing much damage at little cost. Israeli public morale is unlikely to collapse; there is overwhelming support for war on Iran, but in the longer ter,m if Israel looks vulnerable, it will damage that myth of invincibility.
This war is truly awful and could get a lot worse – if Israel felt truly threatened, it might turn to its nuclear arsenal. But it is not working out as hoped for Trump and Netanyahu. That is bad news for both.
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