Whether the market moves beyond our base case will largely depend on how quickly shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz ease.
Under our base case scenario, shipping disruptions remain severe in March before gradually easing through the second quarter. In this case, current curtailments at Alba and Qatalum would remain relatively contained.
However, if shipping disruptions extend into April, alumina inventories at Gulf smelters could become increasingly constrained, potentially forcing further production cuts across the region.
A move towards our severe disruption scenario would likely require shipping disruptions to persist through May, forcing additional smelters to curtail output and significantly tightening global aluminium supply.