KANSAS (KSNT) – Kansas is one of the leading producers of sorghum in the world, but the price per bushel is $.40 less than a year ago, continuing a consistent decline that began in 2022.

Sorghum is the world’s fifth-most important cereal crop that is primarily used for cattle feed, syrups and ethanol production. Kansas leads the U.S. in production, having produced 57% of the national sorghum supply from 2021-2023. The harvest runs from September to November annually.

This year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects more than 402 million bushels of sorghum to be produced across more than 6.6 million acres. This is up from last year when the U.S. produced around 343 million bushels across 6.3 million acres.

Kansas corn harvest is off to a slow start

“In general, we are looking at really strong sorghum harvest this fall across the state in terms of yields.” said Lucas Laag, associate professor at K-State Southwest Research-Extension Center – Tribune. “This is going to put significant pressure on our grain elevators to find storage space for sorghum, a large portion of the crop will likely be ground piled to keep bin space open for other crops that are of higher value and more susceptible to spoilage.”

Although yields are up, prices have fallen to $3.7 per bushel, which is down from $4.1 per bushel just last year. These prices are a part of three year decline decline that has seen the grain’s prices drop by over 58%.

This year, the cause is a 97% decline in exports to China. The decline has created low prices that are expected to create losses of more than $100 an acre.

Trade war threatens Kansas soy industry, despite record yields

What Haag is describing is that farmers will likely have to choose which grains to store in elevators and which ones to store on or in the ground. Ground piling is much riskier than grain elevator storage because the crop is much more exposed to moisture and pests, increasing the chance of it spoiling. This risky method would allow farmers to buy time for their more profitable crops, like corn and soybean, in the hopes that demand for U.S. crops in China will increase.

“With fall harvest coming in October-November, potential U.S. grain sorghum export buyers are likely to be presented with low price grain sorghum as a competitive feedgrain purchase market alternative. The most obvious factor that would help the U.S. grain sorghum market to increase farm selling prices, would be for the U.S. and China to come to agreement on terms of import – export trade, leading China to re-enter the U.S. grain sorghum export market in an aggressive manner, helping to support prices. But that has not occurred yet.

I think the best thing we can do for the U.S. sorghum market right now will be to allow low prices to spur on sorghum usage for bioenergy, exports and livestock feeding. Plus if there are any surprises to the lower production side in upcoming U.S. corn production estimates on in USDA’s October 9th crop production report, that would be a positive for the U.S. grain sorghum market as well.”

Dan O’Brien, professor at Kansas State University

Until then, farmers in Kansas and across the U.S. remain at serious risk.

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