With no quick end in sight for the Middle East conflict and key shipping routes being strangled, the World Food Programme has warned of “record levels of hunger.”
It said an additional 45 million people could fall into acute hunger as the conflict escalates, pushing the global total to 363 million people.
“As violence escalates, displacement, rising prices and disrupted food systems are pushing families closer towards hunger in the region and far beyond,” the WFP said on its website Thursday.
Fertilizer is crucial for agriculture. The United Nations says a quarter of the world’s supply passes through the Hormuz strait.
South Asia is among the areas most at risk, with the UN raising concerns about future crop yields. And in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the WFP warns farmers entering the planting season risk being unable to treat their crops, driving lower yields and higher food prices in the months ahead. “Even small increases in costs can push vulnerable families into crisis.”
Across South and Southeast Asia, more than half of agricultural fertilizer used is nitrogen-based, research fellow Robert Walker at the Lowy Institute said, leaving these regions exposed to shortages of urea – a form of crystalized nitrogen used in most fertilizers.
Around 35% of the world’s urea supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
While not officially confirmed by Beijing, Reuters, citing sources, reported that China was clamping down on fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market. That would put additional strain on global markets that were already grappling with shortages caused by the war.
Escalating attacks near the strait have brought ship transits close to a halt, sending oil prices to $115 a barrel Thursday and driving up transport, energy and insurance costs across global supply chains.
Concerns have also been raised for dairy farmers in Australia, which imports around 90% of its transport fuels, said Ben Bennett, President of the Australian Dairy Farmers advocacy group.
“Dairy cows cannot simply be switched off or milk stored indefinitely on farm. If milk tankers stop running because fuel is unavailable or unaffordable, farmers face serious animal health and environmental consequences.”