Traders give 65% odds of oil holding above $100 a barrel to end of March Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Prediction market traders are pricing in a 65% chance that crude oil will still be above $100 a barrel at the end of this month, with Brent already trading at $103.54 following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The data comes from Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform where users bet real money on outcomes, giving its probability readings unusually high credibility as a market signal.
Brent has surged more than 35% since the United States and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran on 28 February, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
The strait is the world’s most important oil chokepoint, handling around 20% of global supply.
Polymarket traders put the odds of oil still trading above $110 at 26% by month-end, falling to 8% for $130 and just 1% for $200.
The International Energy Agency has warned that global oil supply could plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March, with Gulf countries having cut total output by at least 10 million barrels per day since the closure.
Analyst forecasts vary sharply depending on assumptions about how long the disruption lasts. The US Energy Information Administration projects Brent will remain above $95 a barrel for the next two months before falling below $80 in the third quarter as the conflict eases.
Goldman Sachs raised its second quarter Brent forecast to $76 a barrel earlier this month, assuming a 21-day period of severely restricted Hormuz flows followed by a gradual 30-day recovery, but warned that daily prices could exceed their 2008 record if flows remain depressed through March.
JP Morgan, taking a longer view, maintains a full-year 2026 Brent average forecast of around $60 a barrel, arguing that underlying supply and demand fundamentals remain weak.
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