MARKET MOVEMENTS:

–Brent crude oil is down 0.9% to $107.72 a barrel.

–European benchmark gas is down 2.4% to 60.39 euros a megawatt-hour.

–Copper futures fall 0.7% to $12,128.50 a metric ton.

–Gold futures are up 1.3% to $4,664.70 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Saudi Arabia Sees a Spike to $180 Oil if Energy Shock Persists Past April

Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn’t end soon-and they don’t like what they are seeing.

The base case, several oil officials in the Gulf’s biggest producer said, is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April.

While that would sound like a bonanza for a kingdom still heavily leveraged to oil revenue, it is deeply concerning. Prices that high could push consumers into habits that slash their oil use-potentially for the long term-or trigger a recession that also hurts demand. They also would risk casting Saudi Arabia in the role of profiteer in a war it didn’t start.

OTHER STORIES:

Work From Home, Carpool and Fly Less to Combat Soaring Oil Prices, IEA Says

The International Energy Agency has advised households, businesses and governments to adopt measures such as working from home and carpooling to curb fuel demand and ease pressure from soaring oil prices.

The Paris-based organization and its member countries last week agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks, the largest reserves distribution in history.

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For the White House, Oil Shock Could Quickly Become Recession Shock

Iran is wreaking havoc on global energy markets by:

Effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.

Damaging or destroying energy facilities across the Middle East.

This isn’t a strategy to repel the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign. But it is causing chaos in the region and driving up the price of oil everywhere. It could, ultimately, have a lasting impact on the U.S. economy by causing a recession.

The latest attacks on oil-and-gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region marked a dangerous new phase for the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, worsening an energy-supply crisis that is already spreading rapidly across the globe.

Here is a look at the energy facilities that have been hit since the war, where they are and why they matter:

Israel on Wednesday struck an installation of Iran’s giant South Pars, part of the world’s largest gas field, shared by Iran and Qatar. South Pars produces 730 million cubic meters of gas a day, mostly for Iranian users.

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Companies Warn Investors of Energy Price Jitters Fueled by Iran War

Companies from airlines to fast-food restaurants are adding disclosures to their shareholder reports about the Iran war, flagging what they fear may be long-term disruptions.

With the Iran war now in its third week and no end in sight, oil volatility is prompting companies to update investors about how the energy chaos could harm their bottom lines. Businesses across the globe, most of which still rely on fossil fuels, have to weather increased costs and uncertainty amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

MARKET TALKS:

Copper Set for Weekly Loss on Economic Concerns, Chinese Output — Market Talk

1113 GMT – Copper prices are on track for a weekly loss of nearly 5%, pressured by concerns over global economic growth due to soaring energy prices as the Middle East war drags on. In afternoon trading, three-month LME copper falls 0.7% to $12,132.50 a metric ton. Analysts at Commerzbank say prices are also pressured by rising production from China. “Data from China shows that copper production continues to run at full speed,” says Thu Lan Nguyen. “At the same time, global copper inventories on the exchanges remained stable at high levels.” (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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WTI Discount to Brent Widens as Middle East Turmoil Drives Global Benchmark Higher — Market Talk

1032 GMT – The Brent-WTI spread widened sharply this week, reaching its highest level in more than a decade as Middle East supply risks deepened the slip between global and U.S. crude benchmarks, market watchers say. The international oil benchmark is holding above $100 a barrel as severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks against key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region raise fears of supply shortages. The U.S. oil gauge WTI instead remains more insulated, reflecting domestic supply conditions. In midmorning European trading, Brent rises 1.6% to $110.42 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.5% to $93.46 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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U.K.’s Scope for Energy Support Narrower Than in 2022 — Market Talk

1010 GMT – The U.K. government’s fiscal position was worse than expected heading into the energy crisis, leaving less scope to support households and businesses, Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics says in a note. Public borrowing was 14.3 billion pounds in February, above Capital Economics’s forecast of 7.5 billion pounds. “February’s public finances figures showed that the fiscal position was worse than expected even before the full impact of the surge in energy prices is felt,” Gregory says. Borrowing could soon rise further, while weaker growth and higher inflation could erode roughly half of the government’s fiscal headroom. Any fiscal support package to help households and businesses “will probably need be smaller than the measures introduced in 2022,” Gregory says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

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Aluminum’s Tightening Supply Outlook to Keep Prices Supported — Market Talk

0923 GMT – Aluminum prices could remain supported by expectations of tighter supply, even as softer demand and rising inventories in China weigh on the near-term outlook, says Howard Lau, China materials analyst at HSBC. Companies are becoming more sensitive to price changes, placing smaller, more frequent orders that reduce forward buying and lead to higher inventories across the market. However, structurally growing segments such as grid infrastructure remain less responsive to price changes and continue to support underlying consumption, Lau says. In mid-morning European trade, three-month aluminum on the LME rises 1.3% to $3,283.50 a metric ton, though prices remain on track for a weekly loss of more than 4%. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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London’s Miners Rise as Metal Prices Tick Higher — Market Talk

0848 GMT – London mining stocks rise as precious-metal prices tick upward. Metals came under pressure Thursday amid a selloff across markets as investors worried about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global economy, ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey write. Metal prices however are up Friday, with gold futures rising 2.7% to $4,731.70 a troy ounce, while silver rises 3.4% to $73.68 an ounce. LME three-month copper futures are up 0.7% to $12,236 a metric ton. Precious metal miner Fresnillo is up 1.7%, while peers Hochschild Mining and Endeavour Mining both rise around 1.2%. Copper miner Antofagasta is up 0.9%. Diversified miner Anglo American rises 0.6%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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European Energy Stocks Slip as Oil Gives Back Some Gains — Market Talk

0839 GMT – European energy stocks slide in opening trade as oil pares some of its gains. Prices come under downward pressure as Israel says it will no longer target Iranian energy infrastructure and there are suggestions that President Trump may relax sanctions on Iranian oil to ease supply concerns, ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey write. Brent crude falls 1.6% to $106.91 a barrel while WTI drops nearly 2% to $91.16. In London, BP drops 2.25% while Shell falls 1.3%. Norway’s Equinor is down 2.7%. Spain’s Repsol trades 1.7% lower and Italy’s Eni is 0.6% down.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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Norsk Hydro to Benefit From Higher Aluminum Prices as Supply Tightens — Market Talk

0816 GMT – Norsk Hydro is well-placed to take advantage of elevated aluminum prices, RBC analyst Marina Calero writes. With the Middle East conflict showing no signs of de-escalating, supply risks are mounting. The region is home to 9% of global production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz makes it challenging, if not impossible, to export production and import raw materials. RBC now assumes no production at Norsk Hydro’s Qatar joint venture this year. However, the Norwegian company is blessed with low-cost hydropower, stands to benefit from higher aluminum prices and European premiums, and its energy division could see windfall prices. RBC upgrades its rating on Norsk Hydro to outperform from sector perform and lifts its price target to 95 Norwegian kroner from 85 kroner. Shares rise 2.9% to 88.04 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

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Parts of Southeast Asia May Face Higher Food Inflation — Market Talk

0748 GMT – Some Southeast Asian countries could face higher food inflation if the Middle East conflict persists, DBS economists write in a note. Food carries a significant weightage in these countries’ consumer-price index basket, with Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines being most vulnerable to increasing food prices. The Middle East is a dominant global exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea, and accounts for 20% to 30% of the global share. “In terms of direct impact, we assess that Thailand–a key agriculture producer–is the most vulnerable regionally,” DBS says. Singapore is also exposed to international food price shocks, despite diversifying across multiple sources.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

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Gold’s Recent Fall Meaningful But Not Unprecedented — Market Talk

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March 20, 2026 07:47 ET (11:47 GMT)

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