What is the current situation on the battlefield in Iran? : NPR

The Pentagon is sending two Marine units to the Middle East despite President Trump’s denials that he will call for ground troops to fight in Iran.

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

President Trump says the war in Iran is going very well, and he’s considering – in his words – winding it down. But the U.S. hasn’t reached the many goals the president and his team have declared, and there’s no sign of when the war might end. We begin this hour with NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre. Greg, thanks for being with us.

GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.

SIMON: Today marks three weeks since the war began. Where do things stand on the battlefield?

MYRE: So big-picture, the U.S. and Israel dominate the skies over Iran. They’re really bombing at will. Iranian missiles and drone strikes are down 90% from the early days of war. And this is all according to the Pentagon. Now, the Pentagon also announced the U.S. is using Apache helicopters and A-10 Warthog planes to carry out attacks now. This is interesting on a couple points. First, these are slow-moving, low-flying aircraft that often loiter over a battle site. They’re very lethal, but they’re vulnerable to being hit. So this move suggests that the U.S. believes the threat from the Iranian forces on the ground has been reduced to the point where these aircraft can be brought into the fight.

And then I think the second point is the Pentagon said they’re doing things – these planes are doing things like targeting the small, fast boats that Iran uses in the Gulf. So we’re seeing this greater emphasis on the Gulf and on the smaller, more elusive Iranian weapons. We should really expect this to continue.

SIMON: And, Greg, we’ve seen reports that the U.S. might – and I want to emphasize might – be moving closer to using ground troops in some kind of operation. What do we know?

MYRE: Yeah. Well, President Trump addressed these reports. And he said, quote, “no, I’m not putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you. But I’m not putting troops anywhere.” So this sounds like a no with an option to change his mind. Now, NPR has confirmed with U.S. officials that two Marine Expeditionary Units are making their way to the region. We don’t know what their mission is, but it’s certainly generating a lot of speculation. And of course, one possibility would be an operation intended to open the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, that’s the critical choke point for oil in the Gulf that Iran has effectively shut down.

SIMON: And which has caused an oil crisis that seems to be growing by the day. What might it take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

MYRE: Yeah. It’s not going to be easy. This was a problem that didn’t exist when the war began, and Trump hasn’t laid out a clear plan to fix it. Iran has lost most of its conventional military power. But it’s still very well-positioned to carry out attacks from the rugged coastline with drones or with these fast boats in the Gulf and particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which is just 21 miles wide. The Gulf has really become a giant parking lot for ships. There’s some 3,000 oil tankers, gas tankers, cargo ships all stranded, according to the U.N.’s shipping agency. These ships are unwilling to challenge the Iranians. And the U.S. Navy only has around 20 ships in the region.

SIMON: And of course, President Trump was rebuffed when he called on other nations to help. Then he said the U.S. didn’t need any help. What’s the latest?

MYRE: Yeah. Scott, there’s been a lot of back-and-forth, and now a half dozen European and Asian nations have issued a joint statement saying they’ll contribute to appropriate efforts to open the Gulf. But that’s pretty vague, and no one is pledging anything tangible like a warship. I spoke about the Gulf with Daniel Yergin. He’s a longtime expert on the oil industry who’s now at S&P Global.

DANIEL YERGIN: This is by far the biggest disruption of world oil that’s ever occurred. It’s really hit Asia because essentially, from – in economic terms, the Strait of Hormuz points east. Eighty percent of the oil goes to Asia, 90% of the natural gas. And for countries like Japan and South Korea and even China, as well as India, this is a very big slam to their economies.

MYRE: So the Asian countries could be looking at oil shortages. Now, that shouldn’t happen here in the U.S. because this country is the world’s largest oil producer. But oil is a global commodity, so the prices rise for everyone.

SIMON: NPR’s Greg Myre. Thanks so much.

MYRE: Sure thing, Scott.

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