Nuclear brink: Could US and Israel’s war on Iran turn atomic?

Washington DC — When David Sacks, a prominent Silicon Valley investor and venture capitalist — appointed by US President Donald Trump as the White House AI and Crypto tsar — cautioned that Israel might consider using nuclear weapons against Iran should the conflict escalate, it was, perhaps for the first time, that a senior American official openly acknowledged that Israel possesses nuclear warheads and could deploy them in the war.

Sacks, who is not a traditional defence official, also proposed the US “declare victory and get out” of the US-Israeli war against Tehran.

Trump responded to his advisor’s conspicuous statement about the use of Israeli nuclear weapons, stating: “Israel wouldn’t do that. Israel would never do that.”

However, Sacks is not the only one warning of a nuclear war in the Middle East.

In an interview with Middle East Eye, John Mearsheimer, an American political scientist and international relations scholar, warned: “If the Israelis lose in Iran … they will be fully aware that they will have enraged the Iranian body populace. They will be fully aware that an Iran with nuclear weapons will be very, very dangerous from Israel’s perspective.

“If they can’t prevent that through conventional means, then we get to a scenario where they think about using nuclear weapons. And as we know, there is no state on the planet that is more ruthless.”

Theodore Postol, a professor emeritus at MIT and a leading expert on ballistic missile defence systems, has also voiced direct concern that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could resort to using a nuclear weapon against Iran if its conventional options are exhausted.

In a recent interview he warned that this could trigger Iranian retaliation, even if Tehran must hastily assemble a device.

World Health Organization officials are already preparing for a potential nuclear catastrophe should the war escalate.

Hanan Balkhy, its regional director for the eastern Mediterranean, told POLITICO that the UN staff are monitoring the fallout of US-Israeli attacks on Iran’s atomic sites and remain “vigilant” for any type of nuclear threat.

“The worst-case scenario is a nuclear incident, and that’s something that worries us the most,” Balkhy said, adding the staff are prepared for a nuclear incident in its “broader sense,” including an attack on a nuclear facility or the use of a weapon.

Completely ‘off the table’

As Iran vows to fight “until complete victory” and refuses to concede to the demands of the US and Israel, at least publicly, while still maintaining its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium, some analysts, however, suggest that the current conflict may not escalate into a nuclear war no matter how long the war stretches.

“I would say for the record, based on my 35 years of experience working in this field, the use of threat of use of nuclear weapons have no place in the current war in the Middle East region or in any conflict given that these are indiscriminate and mass terror weapons,” Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington, told TRT World.

Kimball, who leads research and advocacy on nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons policy, at the association that works to reduce the threats posed by the world’s most dangerous weapons, said: “Although, Israel and the US, both nuclear-armed states, may be frustrated that their ambitious war aims cannot be achieved through bombardment of Iran with conventional weapons, the use of nuclear weapons should be considered completely ‘off the table’ and would not be seen as a credible threat in the context of the present conflict.”

Nearly four weeks into the war that the US and Israel launched against Iran, hundreds of people have been killed, mostly civilians. Military and civilian infrastructure in the Middle East has been destroyed, the global oil market has been rattled, and the Gulf region’s security has been shattered.

Even with Israel killing senior Iranian political and military leaders and both the US and Israel striking Iranian energy infrastructure, Iran’s fighting capability remains intact.