Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on Thailand’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’, citing a combination of political instability, fiscal deterioration and sluggish economic growth.
The country’s overall credit rating remains at ‘BBB+’.
According to Fitch, Thailand’s public debt has risen steadily, now standing at 59.4% of GDP. This figure is close to the average for ‘BBB’ rated nations and marks a 25% increase since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The agency highlighted political uncertainty as a key factor.
The recent removal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has led to the need for a new government and a snap election expected within the next four months.
This has created concerns about the continuity of national policy and administration.
Fitch’s forecast for Thailand’s economy is a modest 2.2% growth in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, both of which are below the 2.7% average for other ‘BBB’ rated countries.
The report notes that the tourism and export sectors have yet to fully recover, contributing to the weak outlook.