Thailand has already activated Level 1 and 2 measures
Authorities said Level 1 and 2 responses are already being deployed. These include sourcing oil from alternative suppliers, running all six refineries at 109% to 110% of capacity, increasing the use of biofuel blends to reduce crude imports, restricting exports and promoting work-from-home arrangements to curb fuel consumption.
The pressure on policymakers has intensified as global oil markets remain highly volatile. According to official figures, Dubai crude stood above US$120 a barrel on March 27, up 72% from before the conflict, while refined diesel rose above US$200 a barrel and briefly touched US$240.
Level 3 would trigger stricter emergency controls
If the crisis deteriorates into Level 3 and physical shortages begin to emerge, the government says it would move to strict demand management. That would include fuel rationing, with priority given to essential services such as hospitals and ambulances, alongside tighter controls on petrol station opening hours, lighting use and shopping centre operating hours to match available supply.
The briefing made clear that the government is no longer planning only for higher prices, but also for a scenario in which actual fuel availability becomes the central problem. Officials said the Level 3 plan is intended as a worst-case safeguard rather than an immediate step, but stressed that preparations must be made in advance.
B20 promoted to ease pressure on supply
As part of the response, officials are also encouraging greater use of B20 diesel in compatible vehicles. The government says B20 sold in Thailand meets quality standards, is already available at PTT and PTG stations, and is about 5 baht per litre cheaper. It has urged motorists to use it only in vehicles approved by manufacturers, with the Department of Energy Business providing model checks for drivers uncertain about compatibility.
Commerce steps up relief as Oil Fund strains
On the cost-of-living front, the Commerce Ministry said it is tightening price monitoring and will launch the Thai Helps Thai campaign nationwide on April 1, offering discounts of up to 50% on more than 1,000 products with major retailers. The move is part of a broader effort to cushion households from the shock of rising fuel and transport costs.
At the same time, the Oil Fuel Fund is coming under growing strain. Officials said the fund is currently seeing cash outflows of about 1.5 billion baht a day and is around 42 billion baht in deficit, underscoring the limits of relying on subsidies alone to shield the public from the global oil shock.
For now, officials insist Thailand remains below the worst-case threshold. But with the crisis now assessed at Level 2.2 and pressure building on both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the government’s message was clear: Thailand is preparing not only for prolonged price volatility, but also for the possibility of fuel shortages if the conflict drags on.