US President Donald Trump may say the US could end its military campaign against Iran in the next two to three weeks, but it will take far longer for ships to pour back back through the Strait of Hormuz.
Global shares are rebounding on hopes the war is nearing an end. Even if fighting were to end and crude prices fall, it will take time for gas prices at the pump to unwind and shipping to stabilize through the strategic waterway.
Shipping insurance remains sky high after risk premiums have been baked in, and maritime workers are less willing to make the journey after bearing witness to a conflict that has taken the lives of seafarers.
“Seafarers are the backbone of the trade,” said Angad Banga, CEO of Hong Kong-based Caravel Group. His company oversees Fleet Management Ltd., the world’s second-largest ship management company.
“After something like this happens, there will be ripple effects and the seafarer challenge of convincing them to go will continue to cause challenges for the supply chain.”
The shipping industry transports 90% of all manufactured goods, making seafarers vital to global trade.
Iran’s selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted thousands of vessels operating in the Middle East. The waters are now exposed to mines and explosive drones, underscoring the risks facing commercial shipping in the area.
The danger became clear when the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree was hit by a projectile earlier this month, causing a fire on board and forcing the crew to evacuate. Some of the rescued crew members later returned to Thailand, but three remain missing.
Since the start of the conflict, there have been at least seven seafarer deaths and more than a dozen vessels attacked near Iran.