Refineries are also facing mounting complexity in pricing structures, as crude costs and refined product prices move in different directions. Gross refining margins (GRM), once seen as a key profitability indicator, are now being eroded by hidden costs, with some products, particularly petrol, showing negative margins in global markets.

Authorities also flagged distortions in fuel usage, including the diversion of subsidised “green oil” intended for fisheries into land transport, as well as uneven distribution between major stations and smaller operators, which is affecting agricultural supply.

“Fuel remains available, but the issue lies in management and distribution. Panic could cause supply to drain faster than normal, creating the perception of shortages,” officials said.

The Energy Ministry has outlined a three-tier emergency response plan

At level 1, where disruptions last more than seven days, measures include increasing crude imports from alternative sources and boosting biofuel blending. Additional steps involve adjusting refinery yields, increasing production capacity, sourcing crude and condensate from overseas concessions and the Malaysia–Thailand Joint Development Area (JDA), and promoting energy conservation.

At level 2, where fuel stocks approach legal reserve thresholds and supply disruptions persist, authorities may suspend fuel exports, increase stock requirements, relax fuel quality standards, ban crude exports by concessionaires, procure oil through government-to-government agreements, and tighten controls on distributors to prevent hoarding. Energy-saving measures, such as limiting operating hours for malls and petrol stations, may also be introduced.

If the crisis escalates to level 3, with supply disruptions exceeding one month and reserves falling to critical levels, authorities may impose fuel rationing and enforce mandatory energy-saving measures nationwide.

The economic impact is already being felt across sectors

Sangchai Theerakulvanich, honorary chairman and strategy chairman of the Federation of Thai SMEs, said small businesses are among the first to be hit, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing, food and services. Raw materials account for 30–70% of SME costs, while utilities and transport add another 11%, meaning energy price increases feed through immediately.

He called for a review of the entire energy pricing structure, including refining and marketing margins, and urged authorities to address hoarding and smuggling. He also proposed measures under a “reduce-freeze-support-save” framework, including price stabilisation, financial support schemes and the introduction of an “Energy Wallet” via the Paotang app.

In the industrial sector, Chaiwat Nantiruj, Group CEO of EKA Global Group, said prices of plastic pellets have surged by 30%, with some types rising as much as 80–90%. While supply remains available, rising costs have forced some producers to halt deliveries and adjust prices, potentially affecting more than 90% of downstream goods.

“If the conflict drags on and disrupts upstream feedstocks like gas and oil, the petrochemical sector could face tighter supply conditions,” he warned, calling for temporary tax relief on imported plastic resins and incentives for recycled materials.

Retail operators are also bracing for delayed impacts. Chatrchai Tuongratanaphan, vice president of the Thai Retailers Association, said it typically takes three to six months for cost pressures to reach the sector. He stressed the need for clearer government communication on fuel pricing to help businesses adjust.

Meanwhile, the tourism sector is already seeing signs of strain. Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said the impact has become clearer one month after the Middle East conflict began. Airfares have surged, with some European routes already doubling in price, while flights requiring transit through the Middle East have dropped by around 50%.

He warned that the outlook for the second quarter is increasingly fragile. Thailand is moving into the low tourism season, and the domestic market, once seen as a buffer, is now under threat from rising oil prices. Although Songkran remains a global draw that will continue to bring in foreign visitors, certain destinations are more exposed, particularly Chiang Mai, which is facing severe PM2.5 pollution.

Thienprasit also pointed out that hotels are in a difficult position compared with other sectors, as they cannot easily raise room rates despite rising costs. Operators are therefore focusing on maintaining occupancy and generating enough revenue to cover fixed costs, rather than passing on price increases.

He urged the government to introduce direct cost-support measures for businesses, including tax relief such as reductions in land tax, to help the sector cope with mounting pressures.