RBC Capital Markets expects actual transit levels through the Strait of Hormuz waterway “will remain significantly depressed”.

It says this will be the case given that Iran is insisting vessels must coordinate with its military or face destruction.

“Most critically, Iranian state media has reported that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is now halted in response to ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon,” they said in a research note.

“Additionally, Parliamentary Speaker — and presumptive lead negotiator — Ghalibaf has stated that three clauses of the ceasefire plan have already been violated, raising the key question of who is going to enforce the terms of the deal.”

While the ceasefire announcement has triggered a sharp sell-off in paper oil prices, questions about the deal’s durability loom.

Gulf countries have been subject to a significant wave of attacks since the ceasefire was announced.

“The UAE’s Ministry of Defense has reported that 17 ballistic missiles and 45 drone attacks had been intercepted since the ceasefire took place,” the research note said.

“Kuwaiti officials have also reported intense attacks throughout Wednesday, targeting oil infrastructure and three power and water desalination facilities, with 28 drones intercepted at the time of writing.

“A pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s key East-West Pipeline — which has allowed the Kingdom to maintain exports in excess of 5 mb/d — was also struck earlier this morning.

“These Gulf countries are unlikely to be pleased with a deal that essentially enshrines a $2m Tehran tollbooth fee.”

The note said the issue of Iranian enrichment will likely loom large in the ongoing negotiations.

“Washington’s zero enrichment demands doomed previous rounds of talks, and President Trump has already indicated that he is sticking with his maximalist position,” the note said.

Regardless of the outcome of the talks, unblocking the Strait of Hormuz will prove protracted and major shipping companies have signaled caution about resuming transits.

“Above all, we think the mechanics of reopening the strait will be exceedingly messy, with Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access routes,” the note said.