NAB has taken things further by pushing its forecast for the RBA’s next rate cut to May 2026, following those stronger-than-expected inflation figures earlier in the week. Previously, NAB had tipped a rate cut as early as November, then February, but now sees further easing delayed amid persistent inflation pressures.
November rate cut on the cards
While NAB has adjusted its outlook, CBA, Westpac, and ANZ still forecast a November cut.
CBA sees the cash rate dropping to 3.35%, but admits the data may delay that move. Westpac has pulled back its near-term expectations, citing stubborn inflation in services. ANZ now predicts the RBA will hold through 2025 unless labour market conditions worsen.
Yet CBA is also growing hawkish, warning that a November cut is “by no means guaranteed and will be highly dependent on the data flow from here”.
ANZ, meanwhile, reasserted its hold through to 2026 stance today, saying in a research note: “There is now a real risk of no rate cut in November, with the near-term path for rates highly data dependent (with the RBA also likely to make that latter point next week).”