According to a report from Freightwaves, a proposed plan by Oman and Iran to institute permanent tolls for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz could add approximately one dollar to the price of each barrel of oil delivered from a typical very large crude carrier. About one-fifth of the world’s crude oil moves through this waterway. The analysis follows a recent two-week ceasefire announced between the United States and Iran, which came ahead of a deadline set by the current President of the United States.
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Despite the ceasefire, commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf remains tightly constrained relative to levels seen before the conflict, with activity heavily favoring outbound exits. Transit is occurring under the selective guardrails of an Iran-operated system. Reports indicate that operators of some very large crude carriers have paid Iran two million dollars per ship for safe passage. Brent crude prices recently rose as high as one hundred ten dollars a barrel before falling to just over ninety dollars following the ceasefire announcement.
Vessel traffic through the strait has shown a steady increase, with twenty-one ships reported to have made the passage over a recent weekend. However, no inbound or outbound container vessel transits have been confirmed since the ceasefire took effect. The monetization of passage is seen as an unsettling reality that influences recovery prospects, a situation compounded by a recent United Nations Security Council resolution to reopen the waterway being vetoed by Russia and China.
While tanker movements are limited by oil production locations, container shipping is adapting. Since the beginning of March, at least five services have introduced new connections to ports in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, increasing weekly capacity into one Saudi port by nineteen percent. Liner networks have committed future schedules to alternate routings, with bookings made more than two weeks out having clear destinations. A return to former routing patterns is possible, but new routings relying on more complex intermodal solutions like trucking and rail are likely to bring higher costs and slower movement of smaller quantities.
The follow-on effect of persistent congestion could hamper traffic bound for the United States moving through ports in India. At the same time, volatile fuel prices are pressuring stakeholders across the supply chain while boosting margins for carriers. Analysts suggest there is no immediate sustained relief for shippers, noting that bookings made today for the Persian Gulf still carry the risk of renewed closure when the two-week ceasefire period ends.
In related regulatory news, the Federal Maritime Commission has recently rejected multiple requests from carriers seeking to waive a thirty-day waiting period to implement emergency fuel surcharges.