The global economy is under pressure right now. According to the latest World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund, growth has been “thrown off course” because of the war in the Middle East.
The US-Israel-Iran War, which started on February 28, has raised oil prices and disrupted supply chains. As a result, global growth is expected to slow to about 3.1 per cent in 2026, lower than earlier estimates.
At the same time, inflation is rising. The IMF projects global inflation to increase to 4.4 per cent in 2026 before easing to 3.7 per cent in 2027, with higher energy prices driving this. If the war continues — or worse, exacerbates — global growth could fall further to 2.5 per cent or even close to two per cent, with inflation rising to as high as 5.4 per cent.
India stands out
Is India going to be affected similarly? India’s economy grew at a growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2025, and is expected to grow 6.5 per cent in 2026. According to the IMF, this pace is likely to continue over the next two years.
According to these projections, India is growing almost two to three times faster than most developed economies.
China’s growth will slow from five per cent in 2025 to around 4.4 per cent in 2026, and further to four per cent after that. The United States, growing at about 2.1 per cent in 2025, will reach 2.3 per cent in 2026. Meanwhile, countries like Germany and Japan are close to one per cent or even lower. The UK is also growing slowly, staying near the 1–1.5 per cent range.
– Ends
Published By:
Pathikrit Sanyal
Published On:
Apr 15, 2026 19:58 IST