A public opinion poll from Pew Research Center was published last week, and it sent shock waves through much of the US foreign policy establishment who follow the Middle East. It showed that 60 per cent of US adults have an unfavourable view of Israel. In both political parties, more than half of those under the age of 50 rate Israel negatively. Simply put, the results are stunning. In sum, while this trend has been noticeable over the last several years, there is additional cratering of support for Israel across the political aisle.
For those who believe in the US-Israel alliance – and I have been a long-time supporter of Israel, working closely with Israeli security partners during my nearly three decades in government service – it is indeed a ‘break glass’ moment. The crisis in the relationship is very real.
Many of us saw this coming, particularly with the surge of protests over civilian casualties in Gaza, caused by the charge of excesses by the Israeli Defense Forces. While there was a great deal of pushback from supporters of Israel that these protests were a form of antisemitism, the fact remains that the younger generation in the US was exceedingly upset about the plight of Palestinian civilians. The damage was starting to be done.
I have for the last several years argued that tackling the erosion of US support for Israel should be the top priority of the Israeli embassy in Washington, DC, and even the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs overall. These calls fell on deaf ears. Israel is losing America, and the decline shows no signs of stopping. This matters because the issue of US military and economic assistance to Israel will now be a hot button and a highly contested issue in US domestic politics. Look at how many Democratic Party candidates are now loath to accept money from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the premier lobby group for Israel in the US. Support for Israel has become a toxic issue among Democrats.
Why does this matter in terms of the actual bilateral relationship? Well, in 2028, the 10-year US-Israel memorandum of understanding must be renewed. It calls for $3.8 billion in US assistance per year, which Israel uses to buy advanced US weapons. Given the results of the Pew poll, and the requirement that Congress vote for such a huge package, this assistance may be in serious trouble. In fact, Israel may have to prepare for a time in which this assistance either is cut significantly, conditioned, or even eliminated entirely.
How did this cratering of US support happen, even on top of the controversy of civilian casualties in Gaza? There is always the notion of deep-seated antisemitism that can rear its ugly head. That is an explanation that many strong friends of Israel sometimes put forth, but I find it simplistic and almost an excuse to avoid facing several key issues that are roiling the bilateral ties. Blindly supporting Israel actually damages the alliance. Moreover, all of these contentious issues are directly tied to the actions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu, who, in my view, is almost singularly responsible for the current state of negative public opinion in the US.
Several key issues have driven negative attitudes towards Israel to levels previously unimaginable in the US.
As noted, Netanyahu endorsed Israeli military operations that resulted in extraordinary civilian casualties in Gaza. Up to 70,000 Palestinians were killed according to the Gaza Health Ministry – including tens of thousands of innocent civilians. This has had massive effect on US public opinion. This was the catalyst for what followed.
Netanyahu has then refused to endorse even a hint at a two-state solution with the Palestinians, thereby negating the ability for any type of effort from the government of Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. This is a huge missed opportunity, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman needed some ‘give’ from Israel for the potential of a future Palestinian state. But, Netanyahu just wouldn’t do it.
Next, Netanyahu has allowed rampant settler violence in the West Bank to continue nearly unabated. Israeli right-wing settlers murdering Palestinians with no sanction does little to increase support for Israel among the American public. Once again, the images of settler violence cause real damage in the US. And Bibi does nothing about it.
Compounding all of Netanyahu’s transgressions is the fact that he has grotesquely prostrated himself before Trump, essentially siding with the White House and the GOP entirely, thereby angering and alienating huge swathes of the Democratic party, to include those in office and the average voter.
Finally, the perfect storm crystallised with Bibi’s historic and constant push for US military action against Iran finally finding a receptive audience in President Trump’s White House. A recent New York Times article laid bare the details of Bibi’s incessant lobbying to attack Iran. Many Americans now see this as wildly inappropriate. In particular, the ecosystem of MAGA-adjacent podcasters, which includes Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, Shawn Ryan and Megyn Kelly, are now howling on a daily basis about the influence of the Israel lobby. Former Chief of the National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent – who resigned in protest at the war – is the MAGA poster-boy publicly highlighting what he believes is undue Israeli influence over Trump. Is this fair to Trump, who certainly has his own agency and is responsible for his actions? Perhaps not. But the bottom line is that this anti-Israel MAGA rebellion is very clearly metastasising in full force.
All said, the rent on Bibi’s bad behaviour has come due. The prime minister has quite remarkably managed to infuriate disparate yet politically consequential segments of the US electorate, both from the right and left. That is quite a feat.
Stepping back and seeing this devolution of the alliance is depressing for many of us who were involved in so many productive joint efforts in the security space. Israel, despite all Bibi’s faults, remains a crucial national security ally, particularly on the military, intelligence and technology fronts. Israel is not just a ‘good-to-have’ ally, but a ‘must-have’ one. In particular, I worked very closely on joint counter-terrorism efforts with the Israeli government, and there is no doubt in my mind that their efforts have saved US lives – and could continue to do so again, if the alliance is to hold.
What comes next? We are looking at a future of diminished US assistance to Israel, unless Netanyahu departs the scene in short order with an electoral defeat, and a new prime minister changes course on at least some of the controversial policies mentioned above. Elections in Israel are due to take place by October 2026, so the campaign season has in essence already begun.
A word of caution is necessary, however: Bibi appears drunk on never-ending wars, and he will try to keep Israel in the fight as long as possible to distract from his weakened political position. As a case in point, look at the IDF invasion of Southern Lebanon. Moreover, if the Iran and Lebanon wars ended now, Bibi would be compelled to resume facing his corruption trial. He will also face an inevitable investigation into the Israeli intelligence and military failures prior to the Hamas attack on 7 October, an inquest that will include his government’s alleged role in propping up Hamas. The odds are that he will do all he can to continue Israeli military activity on multiple fronts to forestall his date with destiny; the next Israeli elections may finally be his undoing.