But Gunvor warns of extreme volatility in the months ahead: File Image/Pixabay
Conflict-weary oil traders on Monday caused crude prices to rise in response to Iran reneging on its promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; but the gains were far less dramatic than the shock rises that occurred during the early days of the U.S./Iran war.
Brent climbed 5.6 percent to settle at $95.48 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate surged more than 5 percent to $88.80 per barrel, after an 11.5 percent plunge on Friday,
By contrast, Brent briefly touched $119 at the height of war fears several weeks ago.
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Frankly, it could be very choppy
Gary Pedersen, chairman and CEO, Gunvor Group
The rest of the week however was assured of volatility, since the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran expires Tuesday night at 8 p.m. Eastern time, which is early Wednesday Tehran time; and as expected, conflicting messages abounded about the prospect of renewed negotiations.
U.S. president Donald Trump said a U.S. delegation would travel to Pakistan on Monday to hold a second round of ceasefire talks, but Iranian state news outlet IRNA reported that Tehran would not participate, citing the U.S. blockade of the Islamic republic’s ports plus Washington’s “excessive demands” and “unrealistic expectations.”
Meanwhile, escalating tensions also caused Gary Pedersen, chairman and CEO of Gunvor Group, warn that violent price swings could continue for months, and that futures markets haven’t fully priced in the major disruption to physical supply that has crashed with the closure of the Hormuz.
He said, “Frankly, it could be very choppy.”
Also on Monday, a U.S. waver has allowed India refiners to boost imports of Russia crude, and India’s Directorate General of Shipping revealed that the number of Russian insurers eligible to cover marine indemnity and protection has been raised to 11, up from eight previously.
Washington this week extended the waiver for two weeks until mid-May.
Back in North America, Air Canada announced the suspension of key routes amid high fuel prices, including major U.S. connections: all service from Toronto and Montreal to John F. Kennedy International Airport will be suspended starting June 1, 2026, and resume on October 25, 2026, while flights to Salt Lake City and Jacksonville will also be suspended.
This comes on the heels of action taken by global carriers, including Lufthansa and KLM, that recently trimmed their schedules amid skyrocketing operating costs.
Ship & Bunker News Team
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