The US has “no easy path toward success” in the war with Iran, said Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst in Defence Strategy with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra.
Davis told CNN’s Polo Sandoval that he’s not hopeful that the US and Iran will come to a deal during a possible second round of negotiations in Islamabad this week, because the divide between what both countries want is too great.
“It’s not a good likelihood that we will see something come out of this that will actually resolve this (conflict),” Davies said. If talks are inconclusive, the US has two main options, Davies said: either the US will continue its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or it will “go back to war fighting mode.”
There is “no guarantee that simply bombing Iran will achieve US strategic objectives,” he said, adding that “there’s a real risk that this war spins out of control and it doesn’t really achieve anything.”
If US President Donald Trump were to walk away from the war and declare victory without achieving his aims, such as dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, adversaries such as China and Russia will see the US as weak, Davies added.
“The Iranians have essentially been a more resilient adversary than I think the US thought they were,” Davies said.
“It’s a challenging situation because this conflict is not just about Iran, this has strategic implications for the wider international strategic environment.”