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April 21, 2026 – 11:59

(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose as traders waited to see if Iran will join talks that could advance a Middle East peace deal and help restore oil flows. The dollar gained and Treasuries wavered ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing.

Futures for the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% after the benchmark snapped a run of highs in the previous session. Apple Inc. fell 0.4% in premarket trading as the iPhone-maker named a successor to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook. Brent slipped 0.7% below $95 a barrel, with President Donald Trump saying negotiations between the US and Iran could begin as early as Tuesday.

All eyes are on the Middle East after Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend a two-week ceasefire in a war that’s upended global oil markets. Tehran has yet to confirm that it will take part in the Islamabad talks, with Trump threatening strikes on the Islamic Republic’s power infrastructure if diplomacy fails.

People familiar with the matter said Monday that Iran would send a team, though it’s unclear who would lead the delegation.

“The bar for positive news is low, and developments suggest an inching toward a resolution,” said Laura Cooper, investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen. “That said, ongoing uncertainty and second-order growth effects from prolonged supply disruptions raise questions of complacency.”

European stocks rose 0.3%. Gold dipped 0.7% to below $4,800 an ounce. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.25%. The rate on their two-year counterparts was one basis point higher at 3.74%.

In what could be the most contentious confirmation hearing for a Federal Reserve chair nominee in decades, Warsh is scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee. Investors will be keen to hear how strongly he argues for near-term interest rate cuts amid inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices.

In prepared remarks released on Monday, Warsh said he was “committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent” and that “policy independence is earned — and better policy decisions crafted — by steering clear of distractions.” Money markets are currently pricing around a 50% chance of a Fed cut by December.

“Warsh represents a potential regime shift in how the Fed communicates,” said Florence Pisani, global head of economic research at Candriam. “His preference is for a policy rooted in ‘reality’ rather than forecasts. This pivot away from forward guidance may fundamentally change bond market behavior, as investors will no longer have the same predictable roadmap for policy shifts.”

UK gilts underperformed European peers as former top British bureaucrat Olly Robbins said he felt political pressure to clear Peter Mandelson to become US ambassador.

Robbins’ testimony will place Prime Minister Keir Starmer under further scrutiny amid allegations that he misled Parliament when he said “due process” had been followed during Mandelson’s appointment. The pound fell 0.2%.

In a key economic report also due on Tuesday, analysts forecast a jump in overall retail sales in March. Excluding gasoline and autos, the picture likely remained more subdued as high fuel costs prompted consumers to squeeze spending on other things.

“It will be interesting to follow these numbers to see if record low consumer confidence in the US translates into lower actual spending,” said George Moran, European macro strategist at RBC. “But, we will need a few months of data before making a firm conclusion.”

Corporate Highlights:

Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus later this year, capping a 15-year tenure that turned the company into a $4 trillion business spanning watches, video streaming and financial services. Amazon.com Inc. is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic PBC and may inject $20 billion more over time, a deal that strengthens ties in in an increasingly competitive artificial intelligence race. Associated British Foods Plc will separate budget apparel chain Primark from the rest of its business, in a breakup of one of the UK’s biggest conglomerates. Estée Lauder has hired JPMorgan to structure a financing package of about €5 billion to fund its tie-up with Spanish company Puig, newspaper Expansion reports, citing unidentified people in the market. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% as of 10:55 a.m. London time S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7% The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.2% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1761 The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 159.17 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8166 per dollar The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3507 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin was little changed at $76,382.51 Ether fell 0.6% to $2,325.27 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.25% Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.97% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.84% Commodities

Brent crude fell 0.7% to $94.79 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,789 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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