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Tom Knowles
The private credit industry could face a crunch like the one suffered by the banking sector following the financial crisis, according to Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s deputy governor for financial stability.
The Bank of England has become increasingly concerned that private credit – which is classed as lending to companies by groups that are not banks, such as private equity funds and asset managers – is an area of vulnerability in the global financial system.
In December, the Bank of England announced it was launching the world’s first stress test of the private credit sector to examine how a global downturn might hit the $16 trillion of assets in private market funds, and what the repercussions could be for the wider economy.
Breeden said regulators are concerned that leverage and loss of confidence due to opacity in the private credit market could cause a downturn that could have wider economic effects.
Speaking at a conference hosted by the Financial Times, Breeden said there is a “lemons and sausages” problem that could affect how investors in the market act. She said, in remarks first reported by Bloomberg News”:
double quotation markThe lemons problem is you can’t tell the difference between a good credit and a bad credit, so you just say I’m out of it.
I’m sure lots of you have had sausages, enjoy them, and then you find out what’s inside them, and you’re like, ‘Oh, I’m not sure about this anymore.’
The Bank’s stress test of the private credit market includes talking with some of the biggest private equity and credit firms, including Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, Carlyle and KKR.
However, Breeden said private credit is not on the same scale as the subprime mortgage industry that was the catalyst for the global financial crash of 2008 when it suffered a wave of defaults.
She said: “We shouldn’t be in a situation where this brings down the banking system, but it might cause a private credit crunch in the way we had a banking credit crunch.”
The banking credit crunch saw a sharp and long-lasting contraction in lending following the financial crisis, due to a shortage of funds and reduction by financial institutions of taking on any risk.
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Lisa O’Carroll
The European Commission cannot say if it will be able to stave off an aviation crisis that could hit holiday and business flights in six weeks time.
The energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said they had developed new tools in Brussels to ensure an “overview of refining capacity and stock in our different member states.
But he added:
double quotation markBut obviously we have to be quite honest and say that wehter or not we will be a security-of-supply crisis is primarily a result of what goes on in the Middle East.
ShareEU energy commissioner: Oil price crisis could last months or years even if there is peaceLisa O’Carroll
The EU’s energy commissioner has warned that the oil price crisis could last months or years even if there is peace.
And he has confirmed that the aviation sector faces the prospect of a shortage in jet fuel in the next five or six weeks.
The EU imports 30% to 40% of its jet fuel needs, with about half coming from the Middle East. Dan Jorgensen said at a briefing unveiling emergency measures to deal with the crisis caused by the Iran war
double quotation markJet fuel: this is the area now that is under most pressure and the IEA [International energy agency] has estimated that within five or six weeks we can have a real security of supply issue.
He warned that even if a peace deal is struck in the next few weeks between Iran and the US, the crisis will last months and perhaps years.
double quotation markWe are looking into some very difficult months, or maybe even years depending on the development in the Middle East,” he said.
Take Qatar. It may take two years to rebuild its gas and transportation structure.
It means that the world market for LNG prices will not stabilise of even fall as was expected in the next couple of years.
Even a best case scenario is a pretty bad scenario for the months to come.
ShareReeves tells bank CEOs they have ‘central role to play’ in supporting households
Kalyeena Makortoff
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has told CEOs from banks including NatWest, Lloyds and HSBC that they have a “central role to play” in supporting consumers and households amid heightened uncertainty sparked by the US-Israeli war on Iran.
In a meeting at 11 Downing Street at 8am this morning, Reeves and the City minister Lucy Rigby underlined that economic stability is the government’s first priority, and set out how the chancello’rs economic plan is “strengthening the UK’s resilience and keeping costs down for households and businesses”.
She also told the bank bosses, which also included chief executives from Barclays and Nationwide Building Society, “that the financial services sector has a central role to play in managing risk, backing consumer confidence and supporting households,” according to a Treasury briefing.
It comes as borrowers brace themselves for mortgage rate increases, as soaring energy prices, triggered by the Iran conflict, have led to gloomy forecasts about rising inflation and mortgage costs.
More than 1m UK households could see the cost of servicing loans on their homes increase, the Bank of England has predicted.
Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, is seen at the National Growth Debate at the Institute of Directors in London, on 21 April. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty ImagesShare
Helena Horton
Scores of farmers are planning to leave their land fallow because of rising fertiliser and fuel costs making it uneconomical to grow crops in England this year, the Central Association of Agricultural Valuers (CAAV) has said.
The group has asked the government to put in place a time-limited soil resilience scheme, to pay farmers to plant legumes in order to fix nitrogen in the soil and improve it for when it can be sown again.
This follows several difficult years for arable farmers, with the sector having just had its worst year in cash terms since at least 2004/5. Jeremy Moody, secretary and adviser to the CAAV in proposing an alternative to Defra, said:
double quotation markThis may make it rational for some farmers not to plant crops this autumn for the 2027 harvest – leaving the land fallow instead.
Moody pointed to indications from the southern hemisphere, where planting has begun. Early indications from Australia suggest that 27% of growers have reduced or stopped planting due to uncertainty over the conflict, 53% have less than three weeks of diesel to hand; with fuel 74% more expensive, and 19% have decided not to harvest existing crops due to increased costs of production and haulage, according to a survey by AUSVEG.
The proposed soil improvement and resilience scheme would see the establishment of a mixed green legume manure, which could be used as a cover crop to improve soil structure and fertility, rather than leaving land fallow. Moody said:
double quotation markThe green manure could be used under the current challenging geopolitical circumstances, signalling a culture of soil improvement for both resilience and productivity, as well as preparation for more extreme weather conditions,”
While farmers might decide to leave land fallow, a one-off scheme to establish a mixed green legume manure after harvest could provide a positive purpose for improvement and a single, simple signal of direction with lasting benefits.
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Heather Stewart
At a Resolution Foundation event on the impact of the war this morning, experts have been discussing the dilemma facing Bank of England policymakers in the coming months, with inflation likely to continue rising, our economics editor Heather Stewart reports.
Michael Saunders, a former member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC), now at Oxford Economics, said he expects a couple of rate rises later this year – because the risks of letting inflation get out of control are greater than of over-reacting now.
double quotation markThe cost of keeping rates too low and then having to catch up would be really high.
He pointed out that equally valid economic models point to wage growth of 3.25% this year – or 4.5%.
double quotation markIf they wait, and then find that pay growth is higher, and inflation expectations may be rising disproportionately, interest rates then would have to rise quite a long way.
I think there’s a reasonable chance you will get some tightening this year.
Saunders said he would therefore,
double quotation markpencil in a couple of hikes. Probably not next week. I think more likely one in June to September, one perhaps in the fourth quarter this year.
However, Liz Martens, of HSBC, said weak growth in the economy might help to constrain so-called “second round effects,” where wage growth rises, and firms pass on cost increases by raising prices.
double quotation markIt’s kind of three phases: number one, ‘I want a pay rise’. Well, yes, obviously. Number two, I have to get that pay rise. And number three, my employer then has to be able to pass that back on to their customers. And I think steps two and three are much trickier, in this economy.
Oil prices are rising again, as the situation in the Middle East remains very volatile.
Donald Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire between the US and Iran, but there have been reports of two attacks by Iran on cargo ships in the strait of Hormuz, and the US maintains its blockade of Iranian ports.
Brent crude reversed an earlier dip to $96.54 a barrel, and is trading closer to $100 a barrel, at $99.32 a barrel, up 0.9%.
The FTSE 100 index has turned positive, trading 6 points higher at 10,504. The German stock market is flat and the French, Italian and Spanish indices have dipped slightly, giving up earlier modest gains.
Updated at 05.45 EDT
The hospitality sector is counting the cost of the Iran war.
Kate Nicholls, chair of UKHospitality, which represents bars, restaurants and hotels, said:
double quotation markThe inflationary impact of the conflict in the Middle East is evident in today’s figures.
Hospitality businesses are highly exposed to increased fuel prices, through the price of food, drink, transport and other key inputs. As one of the final links in the food supply chain, the sector cannot be expected to pick up the bill for increased costs down the chain.
Hospitality is already one of the most heavily taxed sectors in the economy and there is no room to absorb further cost increases. Ultimately, it will result in price rises at the till, further driving inflation.
The impact on consumer demand should be closely monitored, as our pubs, restaurants, cafes and hotels will be the first to feel the combined hit of increased input costs and reduced spending.
The government should be looking closely at how it can reduce the cost of doing business for demand-sensitive sectors like hospitality, which are uniquely exposed to these kinds of economic shocks.
The latest data is pointing to a “steady market, with values stabilising and modest annual growth being recorded,” according to Nick Leeming, chairman of the estage agent Jackson-Stops.
double quotation markTransaction activity continues, but conditions are more constrained than in previous periods. Buyer demand is present, although increasingly contingent on pricing and financing, with affordability remaining a key consideration in determining the pace of sales.
Performance continues to vary across regions, with markets characterised by stronger demand and constrained supply proving more resilient, while others are experiencing longer timeframes to agree sales and greater price sensitivity.
Looking ahead, the near-term outlook will be influenced by the direction of mortgage rates and wider financing conditions. Recent adjustments in mortgage pricing, alongside ongoing uncertainty around the policy outlook from the Bank of England, are likely to weigh on momentum, even where underlying demand remains intact. At the same time, heightened geopolitical uncertainty is making the outlook more difficult to predict over the coming months. However, the market has so far shown continued resilience, with activity continuing even as borrowing costs have edged higher in recent weeks.
ShareUK rent increases slow, house price inflation edges higher
Rent increases in the UK have slowed, while house price inflation accelerated slightly, according to official figures.
Average private rents increased by 3.4%, to £1,377 a month, in the 12 months to March; this annual growth rate is down from 3.6% in February, the Office for National Statistics said.
Monthly rents increased to £1,434 (3.4%) in England, £830 (4.8%) in Wales, and £1,022 (2.1%) in Scotland, in March. In Northern Ireland, average rents increased to £880 (5.0%) in January.
In England, private rents annual inflation was highest in the North East (6.5%), and lowest in London (1.7%) last month.
The average value of a home in the UK increased by 1.2%, to £268,000, in the 12 months to February, up from 1% in January.
House prices increased to £290,000 (0.8%) in England, £210,000 (2.5%) in Wales, and £187,000 (2.3%) in Scotland.
Updated at 04.39 EDT