8m agoMon 4 May 2026 at 10:49pm
Government won’t confirm reports of ‘earned income offset’
The Australian newspaper reports this morning that the federal government is considering providing an “earned income offset” of between $200 and $300 for every person in Australia who gets a wage or salary and pays tax in next week’s budget.
Speaking on Channel Nine, Health Minister Mark Butler wouldn’t confirm “unsourced speculation” about whether the government would take that to the next budget.
Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson hasn’t said whether the Coalition would support an earned income offset (essentially wage income tax cut).
“The government is talking about giving a small, sweetener when they’ve taken $30,000 a year of purchasing power off Australians,” he says.
You can keep track of developments over at the ABC federal politics live blog from our colleagues in Canberra.
23m agoMon 4 May 2026 at 10:35pm
RBA faces choice between two evils: recession or inflation
As our chief business correspondent Ian Verrender writes this morning, the RBA board is facing a choice between two evils today: recession or inflation.
If there’s any certainty about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate verdict today, it’s that it will be a split decision.
The vast bulk of professional pundits have another rate hike pencilled in as almost a sure bet. So do the money markets.
But if the March decision to push rates another quarter of a percentage point higher was a close-fought boardroom battle, this meeting is shaping up to be even more fraught.
The last decision shocked most observers by going down to the wire with a five-to-four vote in favour of a hike.
While she’s never given any indication of her vote, RBA governor Michele Bullock has been vocal about the need to control inflation.
So, it’s safe to assume the governor had the deciding vote on an evenly split board.
It’s a neat illustration of the competing fears of this crisis unfolding across the globe.
Half the board is clearly worried about inflation getting out of control, while the other half is more concerned about the dangers of grinding back demand and tipping the economy into recession.
Read more from Ian here:
40m agoMon 4 May 2026 at 10:18pm
Westpac’s profit misses estimates amid margin pressure
Taking a closer look at Westpac’s profit result for you. The 3% rise took its half-year net profit to $3.41 billion.
According to Reuters, that’s a miss compared to analyst estimates of $3.74 billion for the half.
Credit impairment charges rose to $443 million from $250 million a year ago, with the bank citing a more cautious economic outlook, new portfolio overlays and an increase in newly impaired loans, partly offset by generally stable overall credit quality.
Westpac’s net interest margin, the spread between interest earned from loans and interest paid to depositors, slipped 3 basis points to 1.89%.
“The war in the Middle East is presenting challenges for some customers and the economic impact of the conflict will continue through the year,” Westpac CEO Anthony Miller said of the outlook.
“The disruption to energy supply chains has driven a rise in prices and we’re seeing this flow through to businesses and households, with some sectors more affected than others.”
With Reuters
48m agoMon 4 May 2026 at 10:10pm
Market sees overwhelming chance of a rate hike
Monash University economist Zac Gross maintains this website that tracks what the market thinks will happen to rates.
The ASX futures market essentially bets on what rates will be at the next RBA meeting.
Tracking this light orange line, you can see the certainty increasing over time that there will be a +25 basis point hike today: it’s currently at 73%.
Forecasts for the next RBA meeting derived from ASX Futures. (Zac Gross)
Not that the market is always correct in predicting the decision of a small group of people in a room.
Last July, the market priced a 97% chance of a rate cut.
97%!
That’s a certainty, right?
It didn’t happen.
The key argument against raising rates appears to be that while prices are rising faster than the RBA would like them to (headline inflation is at 4.6% a year), the high cost of fuel is absorbing consumer dollars and doing the same job an interest rate hike would, taking money out of the economy.
We’ll find out later.
1h agoMon 4 May 2026 at 9:39pm
💬How are you feeling about interest rates right now?
Since the RBA lifted interest rates in March, another rate hike has been firmly on the table, with economists warning that war-driven fuel costs could add to inflation pressures.
The market is pricing in an 82 per cent chance of a rate hike today.
Whether you have a mortgage, are renting, saving, hoping to buy, living on retirement income, or just trying to manage the cost of living, we’d like to hear from you.
How would another interest rate rise affect you?
Have you made any changes to prepare, such as fixing your home loan, comparing savings rates, cutting back on spending, or delaying a big purchase?
Are higher prices putting pressure on your budget?
Join the conversation by leaving a comment above.