Rigetti Computing recently announced it was awarded a three-year, US$5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory to advance superconducting quantum networking in collaboration with QphoX.
This partnership aims to enable entanglement between superconducting qubits and optical photons, a foundational step toward secure quantum networking and distributed quantum computing.
Let’s examine how government confidence in Rigetti’s quantum networking capabilities may influence its long-term investment narrative.
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For anyone following Rigetti Computing, the big-picture thesis rests on its ability to become a critical hardware supplier at the frontier of quantum technology, riding breakthrough developments into tangible commercial demand. The latest US$5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory contract is an encouraging signal of government trust in Rigetti’s quantum networking credentials, putting more weight behind the company’s technical narrative. In the short term, this could modestly offset some pressure from weak recent revenue and persistent unprofitability, as fresh non-dilutive funding and high-profile partnerships may help extend the runway for R&D and buy more time to seek commercial traction. However, the most significant risks remain: Rigetti operates in an intensely competitive space, still trades at high valuations relative to industry peers, and faces ongoing losses, with dilution and volatility risk still hanging over shareholders. The government contract increases visibility, but does not eliminate these financial hurdles or the unpredictability of quantum commercialization timelines.
But it’s important to remember, significant shareholder dilution remains an active concern despite the new partnership. Our valuation report unveils the possibility Rigetti Computing’s shares may be trading at a premium.
RGTI Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025
Forty-one community members on Simply Wall St gave fair value targets for Rigetti between US$0.13 and US$24.50, highlighting how opinions differ on the stock’s potential. Despite this diversity, unresolved concerns about rising losses and continued share dilution still shape much of the discussion, inviting you to weigh several paths for Rigetti.
Explore 41 other fair value estimates on Rigetti Computing – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include RGTI.
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