Obinna Chima
Recent economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as well as the decisions reached at this week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), offer a glimmer of hope.
While on Monday, the NBS released the second quarter (Q2) 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, which showed output growth, the MPC’s cut in the benchmark interest, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), signaled its commencement of monetary easing.
The NBS report showed that Nigeria’s economy expanded year-on-year in the second quarter, its quickest pace in about four years. Buoyed by non-oil contribution of 95.95 per cent, the GDP grew by 4.23 per cent, year-on-year, in real terms in Q2 2025, compared to 3.13 per cent in Q1, and 3.48 per cent in Q2 2024. The non-oil sector’s contribution was, however, lower than the 96.03 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter, as well as 96.49 per cent in Q2 2024.
According to the GDP Q2 report, in nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic price stood at N100.73 trillion, compared to N84.48 trillion in Q2 2024, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 19.23 per cent. Real GDP stood at N51.20 trillion. The NBS explained that following the rebasing of GDP using 2019 as the base year, previous quarterly GDP estimates were benchmarked to the rebased annual estimates to align the old series with the new rebased estimates.
On the other hand, the MPC at its meeting kick-started monetary easing with a cut in the MPR by 50 basis points to 27 percent, from the 27.50 percent it was previously, citing sustained disinflation and stronger GDP growth. In addition, the MPC also adjusted the standing facilities corridor around the MPR to +250/-250 basis points from +500/-100 basis points to boost interbank market transactions and enhance the stability of the market.
CBN Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, said the committee’s decision to lower the monetary policy rate was predicated on the sustained disinflation recorded in the past five months. He expressed satisfaction with the prevailing macroeconomic stability, evidenced by the improvements in several indicators, including the sustained disinflation, improved output growth, stable exchange rate, and robust external reserves.
However, economic growth and policy shifts, while encouraging, are only fragments of a bigger puzzle as they do not automatically translate into improved living standards, as I stated in a recent intervention, in which I cited Kate Raworth’s book – ‘Doughnut Economics – Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st Century Economist.’
Indeed, without affordable credit and structural reforms, households and enterprises will continue to struggle. Food inflation has remained high at over 20 per cent, placing enormous strain on households and eroding disposable incomes. Macroeconomic stability will only have meaning when Nigerians experience tangible relief through lower food and living costs.
Raworth argues that beyond statistics, focus should shift from aggregate output to human well-being to create economies that prioritise social justice, reduce inequality, and operate within the ecological limits of the planet.
According to the author, “For over 70 years, economics has been fixated on GDP, or national output, as itS primary measure of progress. That fixation has been used to justify extreme inequalities of income and wealth, coupled with unprecedented destruction of the living world.
“For the 21st century, a far bigger goal is needed: Meeting the human rights of every person within the means of our life-giving planet.”
A doughnut approach, which Raworth proposes, puts human capital at the front and centre of everything.
“We evidently want something more than growth, but our politicians cannot find the words, and economists have long declined to supply them. So, it’s time to cry and to laugh, but, most of all, it’s time to talk again of what matters,” she adds.
Raworth further argues that sustainable economics means meeting everyone’s essential needs such as food, water, housing, healthcare, and political voice, without breaching ecological boundaries like climate stability and biodiversity loss. She also stresses that growth in low‑income countries must be “significant” to reach social thresholds, but tempered to avoid environmental collapse.
Nigeria’s situation underscores that GDP alone is inadequate as a measure of progress and should not be the guiding policy north star. For Nigeria to truly ignite economic activity, it must move beyond headline statistics and embrace deeper, structural reforms.
It has been repeatedly reported that nearly 133 million Nigerians remain multi-dimensionally poor, roughly 63 percent of the population. By GDP per capita, which represents the average economic output or income per person in the country, and is often used to gauge the standard of living, Nigeria ranks 146th out of 191 countries. Additionally, Nigeria has one of the lowest life expectancies in Africa, particularly due to high infant and maternal mortality and poor access to healthcare.
Nice GDP numbers have also not translated into universal access to primary healthcare or a reduction in preventable deaths. Despite population growth, educational outcomes remain weak. The World Bank reports Nigeria’s human capital index among the lowest globally: children born in 2020 are expected to reach only 36 percent of their full potential productively without better access to education and health services.
Without complementary reforms, sexy GDP numbers risk looking impressive on the surface but lacking meaningful impact. For policymakers and Nigeria’s economic managers, this means crafting policies that simultaneously target ensuring sufficient access to education, health, housing, livelihoods for all citizens, especially the several millions living in poverty, and the rising number of unemployed youths.
They must also expand national statistics to track social outcomes such as education attainment rates, life expectancy, poverty depth, ecological footprints, carbon emissions, water stress and use these indicators to assess national performance, alongside GDP.
Governance must become participatory. Policies around land, resource use, urban planning, health delivery, and education should involve local communities, civil society, and youth.
A larger GDP should be seen as necessary but not sufficient. Policymakers must look beyond the statistical uplift and redirect fiscal savings to social sectors, deliver jobs beyond subsistence, formalise the informal economy, green infrastructure, measure what matters, and expand participatory governance.
Only then can Nigeria’s economic story break free from GDP’s narrow confines and become a narrative of true human and ecological flourishing. Nigeria’s path forward, therefore, lies not just in GDP numbers but in the statistics and policies that translate to better lives.