Is The Outcome An Inevitability? – Awards Daily

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If there is one acting category that always has traction and attention, from who will get nominated to who ultimately prevails, it has always been that of Best Actress in a Leading Role.

From ingenues to veterans, American sensations to International discoveries, it’s undoubtedly one of, if not the most popular, races to watch annually. Although the track record has been spotty in the past, Best Actress has become a stronger predictor of the Best Picture category in recent years, with four of the past five winners having female leads, and three of those five having won both Lead Actress and the film’s overall win. Suffice to say, in most circumstances going forward, whatever performance or film one has winning this category, it’s likely to have a strong presence in the Best Picture category as a whole.

Jessie Buckley and Hamnet’s strength in Best Picture

Coming out of the world premiere of Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet at Telluride is easily an all-time favorite that will be part of the film festival’s history, remembered years from now. What she has crafted is something that has lingered in my mind, a combination of what I could correlate to Terrence Malick’s audacious, immersive vision, and Jane Campion’s character exploration, and some director trademarks of hers found in 2017’s The Rider and 2020’s Nomadland, it’s almost like a fairytale, something dream-like that sticks out visually. Zhao’s work alongside Żal’s cinematography is meant to evoke a sense of otherworldliness and isolation, which it succeeds in doing.

However, as I have alluded to before, Hamnet’s critical successes might become a hindrance to a wider audience. Zhao is not trying to give everyone the answers; she respects the audience’s willingness to explore and ponder what her projects are expressing both thematically and cinematically. It’s a film that doesn’t hold the audience’s hand through its more challenging moments, but the ones who love it and “get it” will never forget it.

[editor’s note: The book was a bestseller, winning Waterstones Book of the Year and the National Book Critics Circle Award, NY Times Notable Book and Best Book of the Year by The Guardian, Financial Times, Literary Hub, and NPR.]

One aspect that everyone has singled out is undoubtedly that of Jessie Buckley’s central performance, whose raw delivery and humane character are what make Hamnet whole. It’s her story from the first frame until the very end, and its central theme of overcoming loss makes her role one that is easy to root for and empathize with, even if the narrative isn’t afraid to make these characters morally complex. Combine that with her chemistry with Paul Mescal, and it’s a well-centered character who the audience can emotionally connect to.

Suffice to say, many believe that Buckley is not only the frontrunner, but a strong #1, with no real opposition.

Pictured below is the Award Expert community

It isn’t just her #1 position that is noticeable, but the percentage of people who believe she is prevailing (82%). She checks off the three major boxes: the likability of the star, the likability of the role, and the likability of the movie. Though no race is over until it’s over, Buckley has a strong case to just coast through the season, either as the representative win FOR Hamnet, or a prelude to its wins in other above-the-line Oscars.

Other people that the community is considering include Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value, Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good, Emma Stone in Bugonia, and Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee.

For Seyfried, the problem with her film is a lack of a distributor as it enters the final quarter of the year. My #1 throughout the whole year (sight unseen) up until Telluride, the reviews no doubt point to a slot in the lineup, but with the window slowly closing, it seems more and more likely Fastvold’s audacious vision might sit this race out, setting its sights on a 2026 release. Other performances being considered include Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You, Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love, Julia Roberts in After the Hunt, Sydney Sweeney in Christy, and Tessa Thompson in Hedda.

If I had to come up with my five, it would probably go something like this

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (if pushed to 2026, Rose Byrne)

I believe the only person who could upset Buckley is Erivo, but even then, the strength of Hamnet would have to correlate with a win somewhere, and after seeing the film, and the reactions, this seems like the place to do it.

Oscar Predictions for September 29

Not a ton of noticeable changes, but a few would be

Springsteen out of Editing, Hamnet in for the time being
Weapons out of Casting, Hamnet in for the time being
Is This Thing On? In Original Screenplay over A House of Dynamite
Teyana Taylor is in for One Battle After Another over Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme
Due to a gut instinct, I have decided to put Paul Mescal in Best Actor for Hamnet as discussed on our podcast last week.

Best Picture

One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
Wicked: For Good
It Was Just An Accident
Frankenstein
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man), No Other Choice, Is This Thing On?, The Testament of Ann Lee, Bugonia, and Avatar: Fire and Ash)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alt: Ryan Coogler, Sinners, Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (if delayed, Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You)

Alt: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Alts: Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine, Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan, Weapons
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Alt: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

Sinners
Sentimental Value
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme
Is This Thing On

Alt: A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Bugonia
Wake Up Dead Man
No Other Choice

Alt: Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Casting

Sinners
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Hamnet

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

Sentimental Value
It Was Just An Accident
The Voice of Hind Rajab
The Secret Agent
No Other Choice

(Alt: Sirât)

Best Documentary Feature

The Perfect Neighbor
Cutting Through Rocks
Seeds
2000 Meters to Andriivka
The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)

Best Animated Feature

Kpop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Arco
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
A Magnificent Life

(Alt: Elio)

Best Cinematography

Hamnet
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein

Best Editing

One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Hamnet
Sentimental Value

Best Production Design

Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Hamnet

Best Costume Design

Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
Sinners
Hamnet
The Testament of Ann Lee (Marty Supreme if this is delayed)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
The Smashing Machine
28 Years Later
Wolf Man

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Wicked: For Good
Superman
Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
F1

Best Sound

One Battle After Another
Sinners
F1
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Score

One Battle After Another
Sinners
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Hamnet

Best Song

No Place Like Home from Wicked: For Good
Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
I Lied to You from Sinners
Girl In a Bubble from Wicked: For Good

Is The Outcome An Inevitability? – Awards Daily

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