After evaluating several strategies, scientists have suggested a bold, unconventional approach to stop the “city killer” asteroid 2024 YR4 from colliding with the Moon — using nuclear explosives to destroy it.
This artistic animation shows asteroid 2024 YR4 passing by Earth.(AP)
This unusual proposal, aimed at preventing a potential lunar impact, was recently detailed in a study on the arXiv preprint server, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. Even if the asteroid misses the Moon, a reconnaissance mission to examine it would still offer significant scientific value.
The research team, which includes NASA experts, noted that “nuclear robust disruption missions” could be deployed in as little as four years, between 2029 to 2031.
First observed in December 2024, asteroid YR4 caused global concern due to the possibility of striking Earth on 23 December 2032, with sufficient energy to obliterate an entire city.
NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Objects has since downgraded the probability of an Earth impact to a negligible 0.00081%, while the likelihood of it colliding with the Moon on the same date is estimated at over 4%.
If a collision with the Moon were to happen, the debris could threaten satellites and spacecraft in Earth’s orbit, while falling material might hinder lunar rovers and endanger astronauts participating in the Artemis programme.
How dangerous could YR4 be? NASA’s strategy explained
If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to strike the Moon, it could generate lunar “ejecta” — a phenomenon that lofts the uppermost layer of dust and small rocks from the Moon’s surface, sending micrometeoroid debris into lower Earth orbit. Researchers warn this could pose a hazard to astronomers and spacecraft, as even tiny particles might puncture spacecraft hulls or damage spacesuits.
There are currently no firm plans for a permanent human presence on the Moon by that time, so direct impacts on human activity would be minimal.
However, an asteroid of this size could create a substantial debris field, temporarily increasing the flux of micrometeoroids hitting Earth by up to 1,000 times the normal background level over several days.
While this might produce one of the most spectacular meteor displays in centuries, it would also endanger satellites in Earth orbit and potentially astronauts aboard the ISS or other space stations, assuming they are still operational in 2032.
In reality, there are only two conceivable ways to prevent such an outcome, should 2024 YR4 be on a collision course with the Moon — though the probability remains very low. The options are either to deflect the asteroid or to destroy it.