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Velo3D (VELO) is back on investors’ radar after filing a US$97.3 million shelf registration tied to 4,290,000 common shares for an ESOP related offering, alongside the appointment of experienced public leader Lily Mei to its board.

See our latest analysis for Velo3D.

The recent 7 day share price return of 60.88% and 90 day share price return of 80.85%, despite a 1 day drop of 16.69%, suggest momentum is still building. However, the very large 1 year total shareholder return contrasts with a 3 year and 5 year total shareholder return that remain deeply negative.

If you are looking beyond Velo3D and want to see what else is moving in advanced manufacturing and automation, it is worth scanning the 33 robotics and automation stocks.

With Velo3D posting a very large 1 year return but still carrying deeply negative 3 year and 5 year records, the key question is whether recent optimism leaves the stock undervalued or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 42% Overvalued

Velo3D’s most followed narrative places fair value at $18 per share, compared with the last close of $25.50, so the story behind that gap matters.

Although the shift toward onshore, digitally certified manufacturing and national industrial resilience is supporting demand for Velo3D’s RPS platform, any slowdown or re-prioritization in defense and space programs could limit backlog conversion into sustained revenue growth and delay the path to earnings improvement.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why a loss making company can still justify a rich future earnings multiple in this narrative? The fair value hinges on rapid revenue expansion, a sharp margin reset and a premium earnings multiple that leans heavily on long term defense and space demand assumptions. Curious which specific growth and profitability targets need to line up for that $18 fair value to hold?

Result: Fair Value of $18 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this bearish narrative could be challenged if Velo3D secures steadier defense and space funding, or if longer qualification cycles ease and system utilization improves.

Wall Street’s queuing for one rocket. While SpaceX counts down to its IPO, other companies tied to the new space race are already in orbit. → 20 Compelling Space Companies watchlist · Global Space Race Investing Ideas screener · Scan the sector by valuation on Rocket Lab’s valuation page.

Next Steps

With sentiment split between strong recent gains and a tougher multi year record, it helps to act quickly and test the story against the numbers yourself using our overview of 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop at Velo3D, you could miss other opportunities that fit your style, so keep your shortlist growing with a few focused stock sets.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include VELO.

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