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Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is in focus after investors rotated toward newly public SpaceX, coinciding with concerns about a planned US$500 million at-the-market equity program and rising short interest, even as fresh lunar reconnaissance contracts emerged.
See our latest analysis for Intuitive Machines.
At a latest share price of US$22.85, Intuitive Machines has seen short term share price pressure, with a 30 day share price return down 32.14% and 7 day share price return down 14.16%. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 124.46% and 3 year total shareholder return of 170.09% remain well above more recent moves. This suggests that momentum has cooled as investors weigh the SpaceX IPO rotation, the planned US$500 million equity program, higher short interest and the newly awarded lunar reconnaissance contracts.
If the recent shift toward space infrastructure and data services has caught your attention, it could be a time to scan 31 robotics and automation stocks for other companies tied to automation and advanced systems.
So with Intuitive Machines trading at a steep discount to the average analyst price target and sitting on fresh lunar data contracts, is this pullback opening a value gap, or is the market already pricing in all the future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 70% Undervalued
Compared with the latest close at $22.85, the most followed narrative for Intuitive Machines points to a fair value of about $23 per share, implying a small gap between the model and the current market price while still flagging the stock as heavily discounted to its longer term cash flow estimate.
Balancing High-Growth Potential with Capital Dilution. Intuitive Machines (LUNR) has successfully shifted from a high-risk startup to a Lunar Infrastructure Prime, backed by a $943M backlog and a strategic pivot toward high-margin data services via the Lanteris acquisition. While the trajectory toward positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is described as clear, the current stock price is presented as reflecting a “perfection premium” that is said to overlook recent share dilution.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Curious what is described as underpinning that fair value near $23 and the much higher cash flow estimate? The narrative refers to a sharp step up in revenue, a shift toward recurring lunar data services, and a future earnings profile that is characterized as looking very different to today.
Result: Fair Value of $23 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this fair value story for Intuitive Machines could be knocked off course if the US$500 million equity program leads to heavier dilution, or if key lunar contracts disappoint.
Find out about the key risks to this Intuitive Machines narrative.
Another View: DCF Paints A Much Bigger Gap For Intuitive Machines
The user narrative for Intuitive Machines leans on a P/S based fair value of about $23 per share, but our DCF model points to a future cash flow value of $101.39. That is a very large gap, so which set of assumptions feels more realistic to you?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
LUNR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026 Next Steps
With sentiment on Intuitive Machines clearly split between risk and reward, consider reviewing the numbers yourself and weighing both sides of the story using 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include LUNR.
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