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If you are wondering whether Intercontinental Exchange stock offers good value at its current price, this article walks through what the numbers say so you can judge it for yourself.
The stock last closed at US$133.88 and has declined 4.7% over the past week, 11.6% over the past month, 16.3% year to date, and 24.0% over the past year, while still showing a 25.1% gain over three years and 19.8% over five years.
Recent moves in Intercontinental Exchange shares have come against a backdrop of ongoing attention on exchanges and market infrastructure providers, with investors reassessing how these businesses fit into portfolios as conditions shift. That context helps explain why some shareholders are focusing more closely on whether the current price fairly reflects the company’s long term prospects.
On Simply Wall St’s checks, Intercontinental Exchange scores a 4 out of 6 valuation score, suggesting several measures point to the stock trading below what some models imply, but not all. The rest of this article walks through those valuation approaches in more detail, and then closes with a broader way to think about what fair value really means for this stock.
Approach 1: Intercontinental Exchange Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit Intercontinental Exchange generates over and above the return that investors typically require on the equity capital in the business. Instead of focusing on cash flows, it uses earnings and book value to estimate how efficiently the company is using shareholders’ equity.
For Intercontinental Exchange, the model uses a Book Value of $52.08 per share and a Stable EPS of $8.53 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 5 analysts. The implied Cost of Equity is $4.62 per share, so the Excess Return comes to $3.91 per share. That is underpinned by an Average Return on Equity of 15.43% and a Stable Book Value of $55.32 per share, sourced from weighted future book value estimates from 4 analysts.
Feeding these inputs into the Excess Returns framework produces an estimated intrinsic value of $136.66 per share, compared with the recent share price of $133.88. This points to the stock trading at about a 2.0% discount to that estimate, which is a very small gap.
Result: ABOUT RIGHT
Intercontinental Exchange is fairly valued according to our Excess Returns, but this can change at a moment’s notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.
Story Continues
ICE Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026
Approach 2: Intercontinental Exchange Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies like Intercontinental Exchange, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings that each share generates. It gives you a quick sense of how much the market is currently willing to pay for those earnings.
What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E usually reflects how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk often support higher P/E multiples, while slower growth or higher risk tend to align with lower P/E levels.
Intercontinental Exchange currently trades on a P/E of about 19.3x, compared with a Capital Markets industry average of about 40.6x and a peer group average of roughly 25.6x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Intercontinental Exchange is 16.5x, which is its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk profile.
The Fair Ratio can be more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons because it adjusts for those company specific characteristics rather than assuming a one size fits all multiple. With the actual P/E of 19.3x above the Fair Ratio of 16.5x, the shares screen as somewhat expensive on this metric.
Result: OVERVALUED
NYSE:ICE P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Intercontinental Exchange Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, and on Simply Wall St this comes through Narratives. You tell your story for Intercontinental Exchange by linking your assumptions about future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value to a clear forecast. You can then compare that fair value to the current price on the Community page, with the Narrative updating automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a higher value view closer to the most bullish analyst target of US$251 if they think the crypto and prediction market opportunities play out strongly. Another might anchor nearer the lowest target of US$174 if they are more cautious about competition and regulation. Both can see in real time how their chosen story translates into numbers and a personal decision framework around when the stock looks attractive or expensive.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Intercontinental Exchange? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NYSE:ICE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ICE.
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