Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) is making headlines after announcing a major collaboration with Nvidia in artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics. The company’s shares jumped over 9% in Hong Kong as CEO Eddie Wu committed to significantly ramp up AI investment, building on their already sizable $53 billion pledge.
See our latest analysis for Alibaba Group Holding.
Alibaba has reclaimed its place in the spotlight, with its latest surge fueled by bold AI announcements, a strategic tie-up with Nvidia, and a series of headline-grabbing initiatives. While the near-term share price return has only nudged higher, momentum is clearly building, and its 1-year total shareholder return now sits in positive territory. This reflects a shift toward renewed investor optimism after a challenging few years.
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With so much excitement now driving Alibaba’s rally, the key question is whether its ambitious growth prospects have already been reflected in the share price, or if there is still meaningful upside left for new investors willing to step in.
According to StefanoF, the fair value of Alibaba is estimated at $107.09 per share, noticeably lower than the recent close of $182.78. This puts Alibaba’s shares at a significant premium and sets the scene for a deeper look into the assumptions behind this compelling narrative.
“Alibaba delivered solid FY2025 results with revenue growing 6% to RMB 996.3 billion ($137.3B). Key highlights include core e-commerce (Taobao/Tmall) customer management revenue growing 12%, Cloud Intelligence revenue accelerating to 18% growth, and AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter.”
Want to discover how surging AI revenues, bold e-commerce growth, and aggressive profit forecasts shape this high valuation? The narrative’s secret formula relies on more than headline growth. It’s the underlying cashflow story and future margin expectations that could surprise you. Take a closer look behind these ambitious targets to see what makes this valuation tick.
Result: Fair Value of $107.09 (OVERVALUEED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, unpredictable US-China trade tensions or fresh regulatory crackdowns could quickly change the outlook for Alibaba’s ambitious growth story.
Find out about the key risks to this Alibaba Group Holding narrative.
Looking through a different lens, Alibaba’s price-to-earnings ratio is 19.6x. This figure is actually lower than both the global industry average of 21.7x and the average of its peers at 47.8x. The fair ratio for Alibaba is estimated at 29.3x, suggesting the market could still adjust upwards.
So while the market sees Alibaba as pricey, are investors underestimating its value? It is a practical question for anyone weighing risk and reward in this fast-moving sector.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
NYSE:BABA PE Ratio as at Oct 2025
If you have a different take on Alibaba’s story or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, it takes just a few minutes to shape your own perspective and reach your own conclusion with Do it your way.
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Alibaba Group Holding.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BABA.
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